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Super League | Round 13

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STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • SATURDAY 31 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

034
HUL

Hull

✅ Model correct — backed Hull at 64%

AI Win Probability

64%HullFavourite

Catalans Dragons

36%

Hull

64%

AI Match Overview

Hull hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Catalans Dragons are far from out of this at 36%. Catalans Dragons are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate, but Hull counter with Forward Pack which tips the scales. Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Hull. The margin model predicts Hull by 7.3 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @2.15

Winner ✓

Edge

+17.4%

Line / Spread

Hull -7.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
R8W
R9W
R10L
R11L
R12L

older → newer

17.2
Hull
R8L
R9L
R10L
R11L
R12W
15.6

Avg Conceded

28.8

Catalans Dragons

21.2

Hull

Avg Margin

-11.6

Catalans Dragons

-5.6

Hull

Run Metres

670

Catalans Dragons

1050

Hull

Clean Breaks

2.4

Catalans Dragons

3.6

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 3-2
Apr 2026CAT 20 - 24 HUL
Sep 2025CAT 26 - 22 HUL
Mar 2025CAT 4 - 24 HUL
Sep 2024CAT 24 - 4 HUL
Jul 2024CAT 24 - 16 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1437Overall1429
HUL
ELO difference: +7 in favour of Catalans Dragons

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

743Forwards837
Best: 969HUL +94Best: 1231
860Backs734
Best: 1008CAT +126Best: 824
1000Halves967
Best: 1000CAT +33Best: 967
804Hooker842
HUL +38

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
HUL
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
17.2pts
Avg Score
15.6pts
28.8pts
Avg Conceded
21.2pts
-11.6pts
Avg Margin
-5.6pts
670.2m
Run Metres
1050.0m
2.4
Clean Breaks
3.6
183.2
Tackles
301.4
6.4
Errors
9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Dragons
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Dragons
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

64%

Hull predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -7.3

2/4 match predictions correct