# Warrington Wolves v Hull KR — Super League Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 12 – 31 Hull KR

_Hull KR fly past Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 6 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 30% / Hull KR 70% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Fri, 23 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Dan Russell (13'), Josh Thewlis (60') · Hull KR: Jack Broadbent (9' 1st), Tom Davies (24' Tipped ⚡), Mikey Lewis (36' Tipped ⚡), Joe Burgess (51' Tipped ⚡), Tyrone May (57'), Tom Davies (73' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 70% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.1 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Warrington Wolves 12–31 Hull KR in Super League Round 12 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Hull KR winning by 14.1 points with a combined total of 41. What actually happened was Hull KR by 19, 31-12, with 43 points on the board. Close enough on both counts to say the read held, even if the gap widened a bit more than expected.

The shape of the match backs up why the model liked Hull KR at 70%. Warrington's forward pack rated 780 against Hull KR's 837, the backs gap was bigger still (881 to 1014), and the halves matchup was never close on paper, 800 to 1106. Add in Hull KR's hooker rating of 1086 against Warrington's 1000, and there wasn't a single position group where Warrington held an edge coming in.

Early on, none of that showed. Jack Broadbent put Hull KR up 0-4 in the 9th minute, but Warrington hit straight back through Dan Russell and a Josh Thewlis conversion had them 6-4 up by the 15th. That lasted about nine minutes. Tom Davies scored in the 24th, Arthur Mourgue's conversion made it 6-10, and from there Hull KR simply didn't stop pulling away. Mikey Lewis crossed in the 36th to make it 6-14 at half-time, and Warrington never got within single figures again.

The second half was Hull KR at their most ruthless. Joe Burgess in the 51st, Tyrone May in the 57th with Mourgue's boot following, and by the 58th minute it was 6-24. Warrington's only response was a Thewlis try and conversion in the 60th to make it 12-24, respectable on the scoreboard for about thirteen minutes before Tom Davies grabbed his second in the 73rd to put it beyond argument at 12-30.

The stat sheet explains the form lines coming in. Hull KR arrived averaging 1364.2 running metres a game to Warrington's 697.4, and on the day it was 1,222 to 682, roughly the same gulf. Line breaks told the same story, 9 to 2, and tackle busts went 33 to 23 in Hull KR's favour. Warrington actually won the error count, giving it up 7 times to Hull KR's 9, and conceded fewer penalties, 4 to 6. None of it mattered much when the other side is breaking the line nine times.

Warrington's form heading in was LLWLL, Hull KR's was LWWWW, and that gap showed up in exactly the way you'd expect: Hull KR averaging 29.6 points a game and conceding just 11.2, against Warrington's 18.4 scored and 25.2 leaked. This one landed almost bang on those numbers.

Alphr's model finished 5 from 15 on this match, but the parts that mattered most were on the money. The winner was picked correctly, the margin band of 13-24 points was called, and the predicted total of 41 sat within two points of the actual 43. Not a perfect card, but the shape of the game was exactly what the pre-match read expected.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 682 | Run metres | **1,222** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 23 | Tackle busts | **33** |
| 2 | Offloads | **5** |
| **7** | Errors | 9 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 6 |
| 2/2 | Goals | 3/6 |
| 0 | Field Goals | 1 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 7 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 14.1 was reasonable against the actual 19-point result. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 43, within 2 points. Hull KR led 6–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 19. The model went 5/15 on this match. The 13-24 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 4 · Hull KR 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 70.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 13-24 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 14 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 70% to see off Warrington Wolves. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 254 ELO points clear, 1761 to 1507. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Warrington Wolves.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Hull KR by 14.1, with the two sides combining for about 41. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 29.6pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 11.2pts |
| -6.8pts | Avg Margin | 18.4pts |
| 697.4m | Run Metres | 1364.2m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 6.8 |
| 252.0 | Tackles | 285.8 |
| 7.4 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L · R11 L | 18.4 |
| Hull KR | R7 L · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W | 29.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | EF | Warrington Wolves | 35 – 12 | Hull KR | Warrington Wolves 60% ✓ |
| 2026 | R19 | Warrington Wolves | 34 – 12 | Hull KR | Hull KR 58% ✗ |
| 2026 | R2 | Hull KR | 28 – 34 | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR 55% ✗ |
| 2025 | R27 | Hull KR | 28 – 20 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 10 – 8 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.36 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 1st there (0.45 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.45 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 8th there (1.55 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.36/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.36/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.45/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 8th) | 2.45/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.82/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.18/g (def 10th (weak)) | 1.27/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.36/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 5 | 12 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 109m/g | 205m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 7.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 86.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 21 | 30 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 267m/g | 572m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 13.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.4% | 82.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 11 | 4 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 245m/g | 285m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.7% | 94% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.12) +0% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.09) +0% · Fullbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.18) -6%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Props 0.15/g (lg 0.12) +25% · 2nd Rows 0.31/g (lg 0.25) +24% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 20/41g | 26% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 3 | Connor Wrench | CE | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 5/19g | 34% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Rodrick Tai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Arron Lindop | WG | 5 in 8g | 5/8g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.82 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.10 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Oli Leyland | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 5% | — | — |
| 7 | Stefan Ratchford | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Philbin | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/14g | 2/43g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jordy Crowther | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 2/14g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 13/57g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | James Harrison | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/21g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Max Wood | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Benjamin Hartill | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Whitehead | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.62 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 9/15g | 3/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.88 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 73' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/4g | 24% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (1·0·3·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 3/13g | 1/7g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.34 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·0·1·1·2·3·0·1·0·1) | 4/9g | 5/6g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.24 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.87 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 1/4g | 16% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/11g | 0/7g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.69 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/16g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/11g | 0/7g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.32 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Danny Richardson | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 1/7g | 30% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Brown | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/11g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1507 · Hull KR 1761 · ELO difference: 254 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)