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Super League | Round 12

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HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • FRIDAY 23 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

1231
HKR

Hull KR

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 70%

AI Win Probability

70%Hull KRFavourite

Warrington Wolves

30%

Hull KR

70%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warrington Wolves. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull KR carry a 254-point ELO rating advantage (1761 vs 1507). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Warrington Wolves. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 14.1 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.38

Winner ✓

Edge

-2.5%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -14.1 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 13-24 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R7L
R8L
R9W
R10L
R11L

older → newer

18.4
Hull KR
R7L
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11W
29.6

Avg Conceded

25.2

Warrington Wolves

11.2

Hull KR

Avg Margin

-6.8

Warrington Wolves

18.4

Hull KR

Run Metres

697

Warrington Wolves

1364

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

4.2

Warrington Wolves

6.8

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 3-2
Sep 2025WAR 20 - 28 HKR
Feb 2024WAR 8 - 10 HKR
Feb 2024WAR 20 - 8 HKR
Jul 2024WAR 4 - 22 HKR
Mar 2024WAR 22 - 20 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1507Overall1761
HKR
ELO difference: -254 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

780Forwards837
Best: 999HKR +57Best: 1043
881Backs1014
Best: 1018HKR +132Best: 1284
800Halves1106
Best: 800HKR +306Best: 1106
1000Hooker1086
HKR +86

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
HKR
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
18.4pts
Avg Score
29.6pts
25.2pts
Avg Conceded
11.2pts
-6.8pts
Avg Margin
18.4pts
697.4m
Run Metres
1364.2m
4.2
Clean Breaks
6.8
252.0
Tackles
285.8
7.4
Errors
10.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

70%

Hull KR predicted to win by 14 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -14.1

4/4 match predictions correct