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Super League | Round 12

alphr.com.au

THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • SUNDAY 25 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

7210
SAL

Salford Red Devils

✅ Model correct — backed Wakefield Trinity at 80%

AI Win Probability

80%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

80%

Salford Red Devils

20%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. Salford Red Devils are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Venue Advantage, but Wakefield Trinity counter with ELO Difference and Forward Pack which tips the scales. Wakefield Trinity carry a 286-point ELO rating advantage (1526 vs 1240). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 15.1 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.02

Winner ✓

Edge

-18.5%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity +15.1 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R7L
R8W
R9L
R10W
R11W

older → newer

23.8
Salford Red Devils
R7L
R8L
R9L
R10L
R11L
6.4

Avg Conceded

16.0

Wakefield Trinity

39.2

Salford Red Devils

Avg Margin

7.8

Wakefield Trinity

-32.8

Salford Red Devils

Run Metres

1132

Wakefield Trinity

755

Salford Red Devils

Clean Breaks

5.4

Wakefield Trinity

3.0

Salford Red Devils

H2H History (Last 5)Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2
Sep 2025WAK 52 - 16 SAL
Aug 2025WAK 48 - 0 SAL
Aug 2023WAK 0 - 20 SAL
Jul 2023WAK 32 - 6 SAL
Apr 2023WAK 13 - 14 SAL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1526Overall1240
SAL
ELO difference: +286 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

987Forwards828
Best: 1194WAK +158Best: 1000
887Backs979
Best: 1078SAL +92Best: 1144
966Halves1000
Best: 966SAL +34Best: 1000
600Hooker1000
SAL +400

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
SAL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
23.8pts
Avg Score
6.4pts
16.0pts
Avg Conceded
39.2pts
7.8pts
Avg Margin
-32.8pts
1132.0m
Run Metres
754.6m
5.4
Clean Breaks
3.0
300.6
Tackles
228.2
9.4
Errors
8.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Trinity
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Devils
7
H2H History6.0%
Devils

Model Confidence

80%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 15 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +15.1

3/4 match predictions correct