# Wakefield Trinity v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 72 – 10 Salford Red Devils

_Wakefield Trinity outlast Salford Red Devils._

Half time: 30 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 80% / Salford Red Devils 20% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sun, 25 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Lachlan Walmsley (8' 1st Tipped ⚡), Mike McMeeken (12'), Max Jowitt (15' Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Walmsley (20' 1st Tipped ⚡), Caius Faatili (25' Tipped ⚡), Mason Lino (37'), Cameron Scott (46'), Josh Rourke (49'), Seth Nikotemo (52'), Ellis Lingard (58'), Jay Pitts (67'), Caius Faatili (72' Tipped ⚡), Ellis Lingard (78') · Salford Red Devils: Jonny Vaughan (41'), Nene Macdonald (63' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 80% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 20% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.1 predicted → 62 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 72–10 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 12 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty-nil at half-time and Salford Red Devils never got within cooee of it. Wakefield Trinity had the game locked away before the break even arrived, and what followed after half-time wasn't a contest so much as a formality with a scoreboard attached.

The gap was safe from about the 20th minute. Lachlan Walmsley opened the scoring in the 8th, Mike McMeeken piled on four minutes later, and by the time Max Jowitt crossed in the 15th it was 16-0 with Wakefield Trinity barely out of first gear. Walmsley's second try in the 20th made it 20-0, Caius Faatili added a fifth try before the half-hour, and Mason Lino's effort in the 37th had it at 30-0 heading into the sheds. Salford Red Devils hadn't sniffed the ball anywhere near their opponents' line.

Jonny Vaughan gave Salford Red Devils something to show for the second half, scoring in the 41st minute to make it 30-6 with the conversion. It didn't slow anything down. Wakefield Trinity answered with five tries in a 21-minute stretch between the 46th and the 67th, through Cameron Scott, Josh Rourke, Seth Nikotemo, Ellis Lingard and Jay Pitts, turning a big lead into an absolute rout. Nene Macdonald's try in the 63rd was Salford Red Devils' only reply in that entire stretch. Faatili's second and Lingard's second either side of the 72nd and 78th minute marks rounded out a scoreline that finished 72-10.

The stat sheet backs up everything the timeline suggests. Wakefield Trinity ran for 1,432 metres to Salford Red Devils' 536, broke the line 13 times to Salford's one, and racked up 47 tackle busts against 13. That's not a team finding gaps here and there, that's a team going through Salford Red Devils more or less at will. Max Jowitt kicked goals all night to go with his try, and with Lachlan Walmsley, Caius Faatili and Ellis Lingard all crossing twice, the try-scoring was spread right through the side.

Salford Red Devils actually won the discipline count, giving away one penalty to Wakefield Trinity's two, and were tidier with the ball, coughing it up three times to five. None of it mattered much when the gap in strike power was this wide. Their pre-match form read ugly, five straight losses and an average margin of minus 32.8, and nothing in this performance suggested that trend was about to turn.

The pre-match numbers pointed at a Wakefield Trinity win, and on that front the model did its job, backing the home side at 80 percent. Where it fell over was the size of it. The margin model had Wakefield Trinity by 15.1 and a combined total of 44 points. The actual margin was 62, and the game produced 82 points, 38 more than tipped. Wakefield Trinity's forward and hooker ratings going in, 987 and 600 against Salford's 828 and 1000, hinted at a physical mismatch up front that the scoreboard ended up confirming in the most emphatic way possible. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one was a big miss on the margin.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| **1,432** | Run metres | 536 |
| **13** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **47** | Tackle busts | 13 |
| **13** | Offloads | 6 |
| 5 | Errors | **3** |
| 2 | Penalties conceded | **1** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tries | 2 |
| 10/13 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 1 |
| 5 | Errors | 3 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 80% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.1 but the actual margin was 62 points. The game's 82 points came in 38 points higher than the predicted 44. Wakefield Trinity led 30–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 62. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (18/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 2 · Salford Red Devils 1.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 79.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 15 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 80% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 286 ELO points clear, 1526 to 1240. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Salford Red Devils.

On paper Salford Red Devils shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with Wakefield Trinity, which says ELO Difference and Forward Pack carry the most weight. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 15.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Wakefield Trinity to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 23.8pts | Avg Score | 6.4pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 39.2pts |
| 7.8pts | Avg Margin | -32.8pts |
| 1132.0m | Run Metres | 754.6m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 300.6 | Tackles | 228.2 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 8.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R7 L · R8 W · R9 L · R10 W · R11 W | 23.8 |
| Salford Red Devils | R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L | 6.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R27 | Salford Red Devils | 16 – 52 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R22 | Salford Red Devils | 0 – 48 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2023 | R23 | Salford Red Devils | 20 – 0 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2023 | R17 | Wakefield Trinity | 32 – 6 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R5 | Salford Red Devils | 14 – 13 | Wakefield Trinity |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.91 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.45 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the left edge: Super League's 10th-ranked left edge attack (0.36 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 8th there (1.09 conceded/game). Key man: Macdonald, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.45/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 8th) | 0.36/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.91/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.82/g (def 5th) | 0.36/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.45/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.82/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.73/g (def 7th) | 0.36/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2.36/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 2 | 2 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 86m/g | 121m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 88.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 20 | 4 · 35 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 423m/g | 286m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.5/g | 10.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82% | 85.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 2 | 5 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 334m/g | 146m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.7/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.6% | 92.3% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.42/g (lg 0.25) +68% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.14) +71% · Wingers 1.32/g (lg 0.87) +52% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Rourke | FB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 21% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 20' |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Cameron Scott | CE | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 24% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 9/9g | 2/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.97 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.04 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 6% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 7 | Max Jowitt | HB | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/7g | 1/4g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.46 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.40 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 9 | Harvey Smith | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.01 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Caius Faatili | PR | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.38 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.81 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' 72' |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 12 | Jack Croft | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/5g | 4% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 14 | Isaiah Vagana | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jayden Myers | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Ellis Lingard | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 58' 78' |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nene Macdonald | FB | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.38 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.98 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 63' |
| 2 | Nathan Connell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.77 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.72 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jonny Vaughan | CE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 41' |
| 4 | Esan Marsters | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Chris Hankinson | WG | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 6 | Ryan Brierley | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Kai Morgan | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Davis | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Harvey Wilson | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Stone | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Toby Warren | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty Foster | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvey Makin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1526 · Salford Red Devils 1240 · ELO difference: 286 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Salford Red Devils |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)