# Leigh Leopards v Hull FC — Super League Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 12 – 26 Hull FC

_Hull FC wear down Leigh Leopards._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 76% / Hull FC 24% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Thu, 22 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Edwin Ipape (60' Tipped ⚡), Owen Trout (66') · Hull FC: Cade Cust (9' 1st), Herman Ese'ese (15' Tipped ⚡), Lewis Martin (27' Tipped ⚡), Sam Eseh (39')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 76% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 24% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.9 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Leigh Leopards 12–26 Hull FC in Super League Round 12 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC beat Leigh Leopards 26–12 at Progress with Unity Stadium.

Cade Cust opened the scoring; Leigh Leopards crossed through Edwin Ipape and Owen Trout; Hull FC scored through Cade Cust, Herman Ese'ese, Lewis Martin and Sam Eseh.

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 76% prediction for Leigh Leopards, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.9 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. The model went 3/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 76.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — model probability 76.0% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — model probability 76.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 10 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 76% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 207 ELO points clear, 1588 to 1381. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Hull FC.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 9.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 16.0pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 22.0pts |
| 6.8pts | Avg Margin | -6.0pts |
| 1305.6m | Run Metres | 1029.8m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 304.4 | Tackles | 284.6 |
| 6.6 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 L | 24.0 |
| Hull FC | R7 W · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L | 16.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Hull FC | 22 – 32 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 66% ✓ |
| 2026 | R12 | Leigh Leopards | 42 – 6 | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards 78% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | Hull FC | 18 – 12 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | Hull FC | 22 – 22 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull FC | 4 – 54 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.36 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 7th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 4th there (0.82 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.36/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.82/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 6th) | 1.09/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.64/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.18/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.73/g (def 6th) | 0.82/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.82/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 5th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 3 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 144m/g | 146m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87% | 89.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 15 | 18 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 569m/g | 371m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.1/g | 9.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.3% | 77.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 8 | 7 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 382m/g | 370m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95% | 91.2% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.18) +61% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.18) +44% · Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.18) +6% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.18) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 9% | — | — |
| 2 | Darnell Mcintosh | WG | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 7/10g | 5/12g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 33% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 9/16g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.94 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.87 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Keanan Brand | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 19% | — | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/30g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Ben McNamara | HB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 6/25g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.84 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/26g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Owen Trout | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/7g | 0/18g | 8% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.16 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.39 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 3/24g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/27g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Charnley | INT | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 11/16g | 22/26g | 52% | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Pryce | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.01 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 11/16g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $22.23 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 2 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.66 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.96 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/22g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Eseh | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 5% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 16 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1588 · Hull FC 1381 · ELO difference: 207 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)