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Super League | Round 12

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PROGRESS WITH UNITY STADIUM • THURSDAY 22 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
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LEI

Leigh Leopards

1226
HUL

Hull

❌ Upset — model favoured Leigh Leopards at 76%

AI Win Probability

76%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

76%

Hull

24%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 207-point ELO rating advantage (1588 vs 1381). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Hull. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 9.9 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.48

Lost ✗

Edge

+8.5%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +9.9 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R7W
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11L

older → newer

24.0
Hull
R7W
R8L
R9L
R10L
R11L
16.0

Avg Conceded

17.2

Leigh Leopards

22.0

Hull

Avg Margin

6.8

Leigh Leopards

-6.0

Hull

Run Metres

1306

Leigh Leopards

1030

Hull

Clean Breaks

5.4

Leigh Leopards

3.6

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 3-1
May 2026LEI 42 - 6 HUL
Aug 2025LEI 12 - 18 HUL
Mar 2025LEI 22 - 22 HUL
Feb 2024LEI 54 - 4 HUL
Aug 2024LEI 42 - 12 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1588Overall1381
HUL
ELO difference: +207 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

941Forwards901
Best: 1208LEI +40Best: 1202
788Backs754
Best: 914LEI +34Best: 857
912Halves825
Best: 912LEI +87Best: 825
1162Hooker735
LEI +427

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
HUL
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
24.0pts
Avg Score
16.0pts
17.2pts
Avg Conceded
22.0pts
6.8pts
Avg Margin
-6.0pts
1305.6m
Run Metres
1029.8m
5.4
Clean Breaks
3.6
304.4
Tackles
284.6
6.6
Errors
9.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

76%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +9.9

0/4 match predictions correct