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Super League | Round 12

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JOHN SMITH'S STADIUM • FRIDAY 23 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

446
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 66%

AI Win Probability

66%St HelensFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

34%

St Helens

66%

AI Match Overview

St Helens are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Huddersfield Giants. The model sees St Helens ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. St Helens carry a 301-point ELO rating advantage (1566 vs 1265). Recent form favours St Helens with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts St Helens by 7.7 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.33

Winner ✓

Edge

-8.8%

Line / Spread

St Helens -7.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R7L
R8L
R9L
R10W
R11L

older → newer

9.6
St Helens
R7W
R8L
R9L
R10L
R11W
20.4

Avg Conceded

28.0

Huddersfield Giants

17.4

St Helens

Avg Margin

-18.4

Huddersfield Giants

3.0

St Helens

Run Metres

831

Huddersfield Giants

1025

St Helens

Clean Breaks

1.8

Huddersfield Giants

4.8

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 5-0
May 2026HUD 18 - 26 STH
Aug 2025HUD 4 - 52 STH
Feb 2024HUD 12 - 13 STH
Aug 2024HUD 10 - 18 STH
Mar 2024HUD 0 - 28 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1265Overall1566
STH
ELO difference: -301 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

875Forwards872
Best: 1078EvenBest: 1143
703Backs1055
Best: 772STH +352Best: 1208
648Halves970
Best: 648STH +322Best: 970
773Hooker1026
STH +253

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
STH
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
9.6pts
Avg Score
20.4pts
28.0pts
Avg Conceded
17.4pts
-18.4pts
Avg Margin
3.0pts
830.6m
Run Metres
1025.4m
1.8
Clean Breaks
4.8
261.0
Tackles
247.2
10.2
Errors
9.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Helens
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

66%

St Helens predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: -7.7

3/4 match predictions correct