# Huddersfield Giants v St Helens — Super League Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Huddersfield Giants 4 – 46 St Helens

_St Helens put Huddersfield Giants to the sword._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Huddersfield Giants 34% / St Helens 66% · John Smith's Stadium · Fri, 23 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Huddersfield Giants: Jake Bibby (58') · St Helens: Tristan Sailor (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Tristan Sailor (9' 1st Tipped ⚡), Curtis Sironen (17'), Jack Welsby (27'), Jack Welsby (54'), Lewis Murphy (62' Tipped ⚡), Curtis Sironen (70'), Jack Welsby (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 66% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 42 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Huddersfield Giants vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Huddersfield Giants 4–46 St Helens in Super League Round 12 at John Smith's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Huddersfield Giants actually matched St Helens where it's meant to count most, the forward pack, rated 875 to 872 coming in. Nearly dead level. Problem is forwards were about the only column on the sheet where that was true, and the rest of the game showed it.

Sailor had St Helens up 0-10 inside nine minutes, and by the 28th minute, after Sironen and Welsby had both crossed, it was 0-22. Huddersfield's response for the best part of an hour was nothing. Ten errors, zero line breaks, just 18 tackle busts from 956 running metres. When your halves are rated 648 against 970 and your hooker 773 against 1026, you don't get quick ball, and without quick ball you don't get busts or breaks. Huddersfield got neither in any real number.

Jake Bibby did put one on the board in the 58th minute, cutting it to 4-28, and for a passage there it at least looked like a scoreline. It didn't last. St Helens scored four more times from there, through Murphy, Sironen again and Welsby completing his hat-trick, and it finished 46-4.

St Helens were simply the sharper side with ball in hand all night.

**Key Match Stats**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 956 | Run metres | **1,536** |
| 0 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 18 | Tackle busts | **49** |
| 5 | Offloads | **12** |
| 10 | Errors | **2** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 8 |
| 0/1 | Goals | 7/8 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 10 | Errors | 2 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 42 points. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Huddersfield Giants 3 · St Helens 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 66.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 8 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 66% to see off Huddersfield Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 301 ELO points clear, 1566 to 1265. Form leans St Helens' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Huddersfield Giants.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 44. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 9.6pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 28.0pts | Avg Conceded | 17.4pts |
| -18.4pts | Avg Margin | 3.0pts |
| 830.6m | Run Metres | 1025.4m |
| 1.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 261.0 | Tackles | 247.2 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 W · R11 L | 9.6 |
| St Helens | R7 W · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 W | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | St Helens | 38 – 6 | Huddersfield Giants | St Helens 77% ✓ |
| 2026 | R11 | Huddersfield Giants | 18 – 26 | St Helens | St Helens 67% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | St Helens | 52 – 4 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 13 – 12 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2024 | R24 | Huddersfield Giants | 10 – 18 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (0.91 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 1st there (0.55 conceded/game). Key man: Gagai, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.09 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 11th there (2.27 conceded/game). Key man: Sailor, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Huddersfield Giants | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.27/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.55/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.91/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.27/g (def 11th (weak)) | 2.09/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.55/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.36/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.27/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.55/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 11 | 12 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 80m/g | 194m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.1% | 90.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 25 | 23 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 328m/g | 440m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 17.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.3% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 6 | 7 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 162m/g | 320m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 93.6% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.34/g (lg 0.37) -8% · Wingers 0.71/g (lg 0.86) -17% · Five-Eighths 0.13/g (lg 0.18) -28%
**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Wingers 1.2/g (lg 0.86) +40% · Centres 0.51/g (lg 0.37) +38% · Five-Eighths 0.23/g (lg 0.18) +28%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at John Smith's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tui Lolohea | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Adam Swift | WG | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 4/9g | 56% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Sam Halsall | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 10/23g | 30% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Taane Milne | CE | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Jacob Gagai | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.63 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.72 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Kieran Rush | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Clune | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/12g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | George King | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Greenwood | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/39g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Harry Rushton | 2R | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/18g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Jake Bibby | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 58' |
| 13 | Leroy Cudjoe | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Ashton Golding | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 5/35g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Oliver Wilson | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/38g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hewitt | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 6/33g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Tom Burgess | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 1/4g | 34% | — | 🏉 27' 54' 73' |
| 2 | Tristan Sailor | WG | 7 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.18 AI 33% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' 9' |
| 3 | Mark Percival | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 11/15g | 2/3g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.91 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 0/5g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.87 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' |
| 6 | George Whitby | 5/8 | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (0·0·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.22 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.70 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 3/5g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/20g | 0/5g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.19 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/19g | 0/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | George Delaney | PR | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 18% | — | 🏉 17' 70' |
| 12 | Morgan Knowles | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Matty Lees | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Moses Mbye | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/4g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.14 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Noah Stephens | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Owen Dagnall | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Huddersfield Giants 1265 · St Helens 1566 · ELO difference: 301 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — St Helens predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r12-huddersfield-giants-v-st-helens
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)