Skip to main content

Super League | Round 12

alphr.com.au

STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • SATURDAY 24 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

048
WIG

Wigan Warriors

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 82%

AI Win Probability

82%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Catalans Dragons

18%

Wigan Warriors

82%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 349-point ELO rating advantage (1801 vs 1451). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 11.9 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.35

Winner ✓

Edge

+8.2%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -11.9 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
R7W
R8W
R9W
R10L
R11L

older → newer

24.8
Wigan Warriors
R7W
R8W
R9W
R10W
R11W
29.2

Avg Conceded

22.8

Catalans Dragons

17.2

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

2.0

Catalans Dragons

12.0

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

725

Catalans Dragons

1272

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

2.6

Catalans Dragons

4.8

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 4-1
Aug 2025CAT 4 - 40 WIG
Jul 2025CAT 18 - 28 WIG
Feb 2024CAT 8 - 30 WIG
Aug 2024CAT 18 - 26 WIG
Feb 2023CAT 46 - 22 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1451Overall1801
WIG
ELO difference: -349 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

809Forwards947
Best: 1035WIG +138Best: 1232
936Backs1023
Best: 1000WIG +87Best: 1238
1000Halves771
Best: 1000CAT +229Best: 771
706Hooker600
CAT +106

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
WIG
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
5.0
24.8pts
Avg Score
29.2pts
22.8pts
Avg Conceded
17.2pts
2.0pts
Avg Margin
12.0pts
724.6m
Run Metres
1272.4m
2.6
Clean Breaks
4.8
183.4
Tackles
298.6
6.2
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

82%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: -11.9

3/4 match predictions correct