# Catalans Dragons v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 0 – 48 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors put Catalans Dragons to the sword._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 18% / Wigan Warriors 82% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sat, 24 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: none · Wigan Warriors: Jai Field (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Sam Walters (18'), Liam Marshall (26'), Kruise Leeming (48' Tipped ⚡), Junior Nsemba (51' Tipped ⚡), Liam Marshall (60'), Bevan French (71' Tipped ⚡), Harry Smith (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 82% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.9 predicted → 48 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Catalans Dragons 0–48 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 12 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors had this shut by half-time and never let up. Jai Field crossed inside three minutes, Adam Keighran slotted the conversion and then added a penalty goal, and further tries to Sam Walters and Liam Marshall had the board reading 0-20 by the 27th minute. Catalans Dragons hadn't so much as threatened the tryline in that opening spell.

The second half didn't change the story, it just extended it. Kruise Leeming and Junior Nsemba crossed either side of the 50 minute mark, three minutes apart, before Marshall grabbed his second at the 60th minute. Bevan French added another at 71', and Harry Smith rounded it out at 74'. By full time it was Catalans Dragons 0, Wigan Warriors 48, and the home side had gone the entire eighty minutes without a try of their own.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard showed. Wigan ran for 1,428 metres to Catalans' 540, more than double, and broke the line nine times to Catalans' solitary effort. Twenty-nine tackle busts to ten says plenty about how often Catalans simply couldn't get a body on the ball carrier. Catalans were tidier with the footy, six errors to thirteen, and gave away fewer penalties, four to five, but neither of those numbers means much when you're barely getting out of your own half.

Marshall's brace and Field's opener did the damage out wide, and Keighran's kicking was close to perfect: he converted seven of the eight tries scored, on top of that early penalty goal.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 540 | Run metres | **1,428** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **9** |
| 10 | Tackle busts | **29** |
| 7 | Offloads | **8** |
| **6** | Errors | 13 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 8 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 8/9 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 6 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.9 but the actual margin was 48 points. The model went 6/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (9/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 4 · Wigan Warriors 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 82.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 12 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 82% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 349 ELO points clear, 1801 to 1451. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Catalans Dragons.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 11.9, with the two sides combining for about 42. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 29.2pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| 2.0pts | Avg Margin | 12.0pts |
| 724.6m | Run Metres | 1272.4m |
| 2.6 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 183.4 | Tackles | 298.6 |
| 6.2 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 L · R11 L | 24.8 |
| Wigan Warriors | R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W | 29.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Wigan Warriors | 50 – 12 | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors 72% ✓ |
| 2026 | R13 | Catalans Dragons | 16 – 40 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 53% ✓ |
| 2025 | R24 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 40 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R20 | Wigan Warriors | 28 – 18 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 30 – 8 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 9th-ranked right edge attack (0.45 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 4th there (0.64 conceded/game). Key man: Makinson, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.73 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 6th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.36/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) | 1.64/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.82/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.82/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 6th) | 2.73/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.45/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.36/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 13 | 10 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 22m/g | 150m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 0.7/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 12 | 40 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 402m/g | 521m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.5/g | 15.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.6% | 82.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 8 | 8 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 163m/g | 378m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.8/g | 11.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.1% | 93.4% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.19/g (lg 0.25) -24% · Props 0.07/g (lg 0.12) -42%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Five-Eighths 0.21/g (lg 0.18) +17%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Clement Martin | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.21 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.82 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 3/14g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Fouad Yaha | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.21 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.82 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Theo Fages | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Satae | PR | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/19g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.89 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/35g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/30g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Tariq Sims | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Elliott Whitehead | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/33g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Franck Maria | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Cesar Rouge | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/17g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Paul Seguier | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (0·3·1·1·2·1·2·1·1·0) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.29 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.29 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/2g | 7/14g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·3·1·0·1·0·1) | 4/11g | 1/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.08 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 0/3g | 58% | — | 🏉 26' 60' |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 5/8g | 2/3g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.57 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.23 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/3g | 12% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.66 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Joseph Havard | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/16g | 1/4g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.94 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| 17 | Sam Walters | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/4g | 18% | — | 🏉 18' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1451 · Wigan Warriors 1801 · ELO difference: 349 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)