Castleford Tigers
Leeds Rhinos
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
36%
Leeds Rhinos
64%
AI Match Overview
Leeds Rhinos hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Castleford Tigers are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leeds Rhinos carry a 254-point ELO rating advantage (1578 vs 1324). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 1.3 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.43
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.0%
Line / Spread
Leeds Rhinos -1.3 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R7L R8L R9W R10L R11W older → newer | 20.8 |
Leeds Rhinos | R7W R8W R9L R10W R11W | 21.0 |
Avg Conceded
18.6
Castleford Tigers
9.2
Leeds Rhinos
Avg Margin
2.2
Castleford Tigers
11.8
Leeds Rhinos
Run Metres
962
Castleford Tigers
1239
Leeds Rhinos
Clean Breaks
2.8
Castleford Tigers
4.4
Leeds Rhinos
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: -1.3