# Castleford Tigers v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 6 – 29 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos stampede past Castleford Tigers._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 36% / Leeds Rhinos 64% · The Jungle · Sat, 24 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Louis Senior (40' Tipped ⚡) · Leeds Rhinos: Sam Lisone (31' 1st), Harry Newman (49'), Ryan Hall (54' Tipped ⚡), Harry Newman (66'), Sam Lisone (73' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 64% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 23 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 12 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Castleford Tigers 6–29 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 12 at The Jungle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Leeds Rhinos winning this one by 1.3 points, combined total of 42. Leeds won by 23, and the total finished way south of that. So the model got the who right and the how wrong, badly wrong on margin, which is its own kind of story.

Sam Lisone got things moving in the 31st minute, and by half-time territory Leeds had a 0-6 lead that looked exactly like the tight arm-wrestle the model had priced in. Louis Senior crossed for Castleford right on the stroke of the break, Rowan Milnes added the extras, and at 6-7 this still resembled a one-score game. Anyone reading the pre-match numbers would have nodded along.

Then it wasn't. Harry Newman went over in the 49th, Ryan Hall followed in the 54th, Newman came back for a second in the 66th and Lisone doubled up himself in the 73rd. Four tries in 24 minutes, Jake Connor kicking every one of them, and Castleford had no answer at either end of the ground.

The gap between what the model expected and what actually happened sits in the collision stats. Leeds ran for 1,871 metres to Castleford's 796, more than double. They broke the line six times to one and racked up 38 tackle busts against 15. Twelve offloads to three. That's not a team edging a contest, that's a team playing a different sport for long stretches.

The positional ratings pointed this way even if the margin model didn't fully back it. Leeds had the edge in forwards, 916 to 863, and a much bigger one at hooker, 1101 to 600, which lines up with all that go-forward and the offload count. Castleford's one clear advantage on paper was in the halves, 1065 to 743, and it barely showed. When your forwards and hooker are getting beaten up front, quality halves don't get the ball in space often enough to matter.

Form lines told a similar story before a ball was kicked. Leeds arrived on four wins from five, conceding just 9.2 points a game on average. Castleford had won two of five and were leaking 18.6 a game. Leeds's average winning margin over that stretch was 11.8 points. Tonight it doubled that.

Castleford's one genuine positive was ball security, five errors to Leeds's six, and they were actually tidier there than the form guide suggested they'd be. It didn't matter. You can look after the footy all night, but if you're getting out-run 1,871 metres to 796 and conceding six line breaks, discipline with the ball is just tidying up while the house burns down.

Discipline in general actually favoured Castleford too, four penalties conceded to Leeds's three. Another box ticked, another one that changed nothing on the scoreboard.

So the model's instinct was sound: Leeds Rhinos, backed at 64%, always looked the stronger side on the sheet and proved it. But picking the winner and picking the width of it are different jobs, and this is the one where the margin model came up well short, tipping a one-score finish and getting a 23-point beating instead. Three from fifteen on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 796 | Run metres | **1,871** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 15 | Tackle busts | **38** |
| 3 | Offloads | **12** |
| **5** | Errors | 6 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 5 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 0 | Field Goals | 1 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 5 | Errors | 6 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.3 but the actual margin was 23 points. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 4 · Leeds Rhinos 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 64.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 1 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leeds Rhinos are the call at 64%, but Castleford Tigers stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 254 ELO points clear, 1578 to 1324. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Castleford Tigers.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 1.3, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Leeds Rhinos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.8pts | Avg Score | 21.0pts |
| 18.6pts | Avg Conceded | 9.2pts |
| 2.2pts | Avg Margin | 11.8pts |
| 962.0m | Run Metres | 1238.6m |
| 2.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 241.0 | Tackles | 294.8 |
| 5.4 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L · R11 W | 20.8 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 W · R11 W | 21.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Castleford Tigers | 36 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 69% ✗ |
| 2026 | R4 | Leeds Rhinos | 22 – 4 | Castleford Tigers | Leeds Rhinos 81% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 64 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Leeds Rhinos | 38 – 24 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 26 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.64 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.45 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 10th there (1.18 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.91/g (def 6th) | 0.91/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.64/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.91/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.82/g (def 10th (weak)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.73/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.36/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 10th (weak)) | 1.45/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 5 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 86m/g | 104m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 94.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 26 | 23 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 385m/g | 538m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10/g | 17.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.4% | 86.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 8 | 8 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 230m/g | 319m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.8/g | 6.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 93.9% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22% · Centres 0.37/g (lg 0.37) +0%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.04) +175% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.12) +83% · Fullbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.18) +78%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Jungle. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tex Hoy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.22 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.92 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 2/6g | 33% | — | — |
| 4 | Louis Senior | CE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 5/7g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.55 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.19 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 4/9g | 2/5g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.86 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.33 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Rowan Milnes | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Westerman | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/12g | 1/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Brad Singleton | LK | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Muizz Mustapha | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Daniel Okoro | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Chris Atkin | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.82 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 49' 66' |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 9/22g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.42 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 7/17g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.86 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 54' |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/20g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·4·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.09 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.88 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/21g | 1/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 14 | Cam Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 31' 73' |
| 16 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Keenan Palasia | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1324 · Leeds Rhinos 1578 · ELO difference: 254 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)