# Wigan Warriors v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 36 – 28 Leigh Leopards

_Wigan Warriors march past Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 28 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 68% / Leigh Leopards 32% · The Brick Community Stadium · Fri, 16 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Liam Marshall (3' 1st), Jake Wardle (8' Tipped ⚡), Adam Keighran (23'), Junior Nsemba (26' Tipped ⚡), Kaide Ellis (34'), Zach Eckersley (52'), Kruise Leeming (59') · Leigh Leopards: Tesi Niu (17'), Joe Ofahengaue (37'), Ethan O'Neill (43'), Ethan O'Neill (48'), Owen Trout (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 68% | Won |
| Leigh Leopards | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.2 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Wigan Warriors 36–28 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 11 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten offloads to four. That's the number that explains how Wigan Warriors built a 28-6 lead before Leigh Leopards had properly turned up, and it's the number that explains why the visitors' fightback, for all its late heat, came up 8 points short in a 36-28 final at The Brick Community Stadium.

The first half was a procession. Liam Marshall opened the scoring inside three minutes, Jake Wardle added a second by the eight, and by the 35th minute Wigan had crossed five times through Marshall, Wardle, Adam Keighran, Junior Nsemba and Kaide Ellis to lead 28-6. Leigh's only response in that period was a Tesi Niu try. At the break it was 28-12, and with that offload count already telling the story, keeping the ball alive through contact all night, Wigan had turned quick ball into soft edges the Leopards defence couldn't shut down.

Leigh Leopards didn't fold, and the second half was genuinely theirs. Joe Ofahengaue crossed just after the restart, Ethan O'Neill scored twice either side of the 45th and 48th minutes, and suddenly a 22-point margin was down to six at 28-22. Owen Trout's try in the 74th, converted by Ben McNamara, made it 36-28 with time still on the clock. Wigan had answered in between though, Zach Eckersley in the 52nd and Kruise Leeming in the 59th were the scores that kept Leigh at arm's length whenever the gap threatened to close.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Wigan ran for 1,286 metres to Leigh's 1,086, and broke the line 8 times to 6. Tackle busts were close, 37 to 36, which tells you Leigh were competitive in the collisions. They just couldn't finish possession the way Wigan did, and the ball security numbers show why: Leigh coughed it up only 6 times to Wigan's 10, the cleaner side with it in hand but not the more dangerous one.

That flips the pre-match positional read on its head somewhat. Leigh went in rated stronger up front, 1064 to 865 in the forwards, and streets ahead at hooker, 1101 to 600. On paper that should have meant control of the ruck and the arm-wrestle. Instead it was Wigan's halves edge, 855 to 763, and that offload count, that turned into first-half tries. Leigh's forward and hooker advantage showed up more in the second-half comeback than in stopping the damage early.

Form lines held up reasonably well. Wigan came in on five straight wins and an average margin of plus-21.2, Leigh had won four of five but were grinding out three-point wins, and that gap in trend showed in how comfortably Wigan built their lead even as Leigh clawed back some respectability.

Alphr's model backed Wigan at 68% and had the margin at 11.2, not far off the actual 8-point result. The total was the miss, 46 points projected against 64 delivered, with Leigh's second-half surge the reason the scoreboard kept ticking over. Sharp on the winner and close enough on the margin. The total just ran hot.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| **1,286** | Run metres | 1,086 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 6 |
| **37** | Tackle busts | 36 |
| **10** | Offloads | 4 |
| 10 | Errors | **6** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 5 |
| 4/7 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 10 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 68% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wigan Warriors by 11.2 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 64 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 46. The model went 4/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (23/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 2 · Leigh Leopards 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 68.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 11 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 68% to see off Leigh Leopards. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 186 ELO points clear, 1788 to 1602. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Leigh Leopards.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 11.2, with the two sides combining for about 46. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 32.8pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Margin | 3.2pts |
| 1331.8m | Run Metres | 1325.8m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 5.0 |
| 299.2 | Tackles | 312.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W | 32.8 |
| Leigh Leopards | R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Leigh Leopards | 8 – 20 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 63% ✓ |
| 2026 | R3 | Wigan Warriors | 54 – 0 | Leigh Leopards | Wigan Warriors 75% ✓ |
| 2025 | SF | Wigan Warriors | 18 – 6 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R17 | Leigh Leopards | 18 – 8 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Wigan Warriors | 0 – 1 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.8 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 5th there (0.7 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 5th) | 1.3/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.8/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.3/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 1 | 4 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 157m/g | 145m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.5% | 87.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 36 · 11 | 20 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 523m/g | 573m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.7/g | 17.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.2% | 83% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 1 | 7 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 372m/g | 386m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.9/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 95.1% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.19/g (lg 0.18) +6% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.18) +0%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.15/g (lg 0.24) -37% · Wingers 0.5/g (lg 0.86) -42%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 12 in 9g | 12/10g (0·0·3·1·1·2·1·2·1·1) | 5/7g | 34/39g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.66 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.85 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/16g | 29% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 4/15g | 28% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·0·3·1·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 16/34g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.24 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 44/55g | 56% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 12/55g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·2·1) | 8/8g | 47/42g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.76 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.54 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/51g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/29g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Sam Walters | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 3/16g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 2/7g | 4/25g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.84 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 21/53g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/39g | 2% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 14 | Luke Thompson | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/16g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 3/18g | 18% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 17 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/23g | 8% | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Darnell Mcintosh | WG | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 5/12g | 0/5g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.62 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 25% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 3/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.59 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.44 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/17g | 0/5g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.09 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.99 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.42 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 33% | — | 🏉 43' 48' |
| 12 | Owen Trout | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 4% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/24g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Ben McNamara | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1788 · Leigh Leopards 1602 · ELO difference: 186 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r11-wigan-warriors-v-leigh-leopards
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)