Skip to main content

Super League | Round 11

alphr.com.au

THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 16 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

3628
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 68%

AI Win Probability

68%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

68%

Leigh Leopards

32%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leigh Leopards. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. Wigan Warriors carry a 186-point ELO rating advantage (1788 vs 1602). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Leigh Leopards. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 11.2 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.14

Winner ✓

Edge

-19.6%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +11.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R6W
R7W
R8W
R9W
R10W

older → newer

32.8
Leigh Leopards
R6L
R7W
R8W
R9W
R10W
21.2

Avg Conceded

11.6

Wigan Warriors

18.0

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

21.2

Wigan Warriors

3.2

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1332

Wigan Warriors

1326

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

5.4

Wigan Warriors

5.0

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
Mar 2026WIG 54 - 0 LEI
Oct 2025WIG 18 - 6 LEI
Jul 2025WIG 8 - 18 LEI
Mar 2025WIG 0 - 1 LEI
Feb 2024WIG 38 - 0 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1788Overall1602
LEI
ELO difference: +186 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

865Forwards1064
Best: 1106LEI +200Best: 1256
730Backs847
Best: 816LEI +118Best: 1006
855Halves763
Best: 855WIG +92Best: 763
600Hooker1101
LEI +501

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
LEI
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
32.8pts
Avg Score
21.2pts
11.6pts
Avg Conceded
18.0pts
21.2pts
Avg Margin
3.2pts
1331.8m
Run Metres
1325.8m
5.4
Clean Breaks
5.0
299.2
Tackles
312.2
9.2
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

68%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +11.2

4/4 match predictions correct