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Super League | Round 11

alphr.com.au

THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • SUNDAY 18 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

4010
WAR

Warrington Wolves

✅ Model correct — backed Wakefield Trinity at 68%

AI Win Probability

68%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

68%

Warrington Wolves

32%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warrington Wolves. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Warrington Wolves carry a 90-point ELO rating advantage (1563 vs 1472). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Warrington Wolves. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 6.9 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @2.25

Winner ✓

Edge

+23.9%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity +6.9 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R6W
R7L
R8W
R9L
R10W

older → newer

23.8
Warrington Wolves
R6W
R7L
R8L
R9W
R10L
19.6

Avg Conceded

16.8

Wakefield Trinity

20.0

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

7.0

Wakefield Trinity

-0.4

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1169

Wakefield Trinity

686

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

4.6

Wakefield Trinity

4.0

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2
Mar 2026WAK 16 - 27 WAR
Mar 2025WAK 30 - 16 WAR
Jul 2023WAK 42 - 6 WAR
May 2023WAK 18 - 32 WAR
Jun 2022WAK 30 - 24 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1472Overall1563
WAR
ELO difference: -90 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

926Forwards945
Best: 1293WAR +20Best: 1122
1073Backs897
Best: 1223WAK +176Best: 1014
1131Halves931
Best: 1131WAK +200Best: 931
613Hooker600
WAK +13

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
WAR
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
23.8pts
Avg Score
19.6pts
16.8pts
Avg Conceded
20.0pts
7.0pts
Avg Margin
-0.4pts
1168.6m
Run Metres
685.6m
4.6
Clean Breaks
4.0
320.4
Tackles
246.2
9.0
Errors
7.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Trinity
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%
Trinity

Model Confidence

68%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: +6.9

2/4 match predictions correct