# Wakefield Trinity v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 40 – 10 Warrington Wolves

_Wakefield Trinity put Warrington Wolves to the sword._

Half time: 18 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 68% / Warrington Wolves 32% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sun, 18 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Caius Faatili (3' 1st Tipped ⚡), Caius Faatili (8' 1st Tipped ⚡), Josh Griffin (25'), Corey Hall (42'), Tom Johnstone (55' Tipped ⚡), Josh Griffin (62'), Oliver Pratt (67') · Warrington Wolves: Arron Lindop (32' Tipped ⚡), Connor Wrench (35')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 68% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.9 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 40–10 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 11 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Start with 1,025 to 640. That's the run metres split at The Diy Kitchens Stadium, and it tells you everything about how Wakefield Trinity ended up winning 40-10. Warrington Wolves simply couldn't get out of their own end long enough to matter.

Caius Faatili had this one gift-wrapped early. Two tries inside eight minutes, at 3' and 8', had Wakefield Trinity up 12-0 before Warrington had settled into the game at all. Josh Griffin added a third just before the half-hour to make it 18-0, and by then the shape of the contest was set even if the scoreboard still had some catching up to do.

Warrington did find something. Arron Lindop crossed at 32', Marc Sneyd added the extras, and Connor Wrench went over three minutes later to drag it back to 18-10 at the break. For a stretch there, this looked like a contest. It wasn't one for long.

Corey Hall restored the buffer soon after the resumption, crossing at 42'. From there Wakefield Trinity simply piled on: Tom Johnstone at 55', Griffin's second at 62', Oliver Pratt at 67'. Warrington had no answer in that second-half stretch, managing nothing at all while Wakefield Trinity ran in four more.

The underlying numbers back up what the scoreline suggests. Eight line breaks to two, 26 tackle busts to 7, 14 offloads to 4. That's not a game Wakefield Trinity nicked, that's one they took apart through sheer go-forward.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,025** | Run metres | 640 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **26** | Tackle busts | 7 |
| **14** | Offloads | 4 |
| 10 | Errors | **7** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 6/7 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 10 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.9 but the actual margin was 30 points. Wakefield Trinity led 18–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (3/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 3 · Warrington Wolves 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 68.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 7 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 68% to see off Warrington Wolves. The ratings say otherwise: Warrington Wolves sit 90 ELO points clear, 1563 to 1472, so the model is backing Wakefield Trinity against the ratings gap. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Warrington Wolves.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 6.9, with the two sides combining for about 40. Wakefield Trinity to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 23.8pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| 7.0pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 1168.6m | Run Metres | 685.6m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 4.0 |
| 320.4 | Tackles | 246.2 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 7.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 L · R10 W | 23.8 |
| Warrington Wolves | R6 W · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | GF | Warrington Wolves | 10 – 23 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 53% ✓ |
| 2026 | R26 | Wakefield Trinity | 25 – 18 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 58% ✗ |
| 2026 | R3 | Warrington Wolves | 27 – 16 | Wakefield Trinity | Warrington Wolves 54% ✓ |
| 2025 | R4 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 30 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 42 – 6 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.9 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 8th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (1.1 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.4/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.4/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.9/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 5th) | 0.5/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.6/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 6th) | 0.8/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 10th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 2 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 83m/g | 115m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 91% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 18 | 22 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 423m/g | 273m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.5/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82% | 82.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 2 | 0 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 330m/g | 245m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.5% | 94.8% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — 2nd Rows 0.28/g (lg 0.24) +17% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Props 0.12/g (lg 0.12) +0%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.14) +71% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Wingers 1.32/g (lg 0.86) +53%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Rourke | FB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.93 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 12% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 67' |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 8/14g | 1/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.26 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' |
| 6 | Max Jowitt | 5/8 | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/9g | 1/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.87 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.37 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 0/4g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.12 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Mathieu Cozza | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Caius Faatili | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.04 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' 8' |
| 11 | Jack Croft | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/13g | 0/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 25' 62' |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Cameron Scott | INT | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Harvey Smith | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Isaiah Vagana | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Seth Nikotemo | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 3 in 4g | 3/5g (0·1·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.46 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.51 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Connor Wrench | CE | no games | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 4 | Rodrick Tai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Arron Lindop | WG | 4 in 7g | 4/7g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.83 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Stefan Ratchford | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Powell | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | James Harrison | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Zack Gardner | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Jordy Crowther | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1472 · Warrington Wolves 1563 · ELO difference: 90 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wakefield Trinity |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)