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Super League | Round 11

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THE BREWDOG STADIUM • THURSDAY 15 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
STH

St Helens

400
CAT

Catalans Dragons

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 61%

AI Win Probability

61%St HelensFavourite

St Helens

61%

Catalans Dragons

39%

AI Match Overview

St Helens hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Catalans Dragons are far from out of this at 39%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Helens. The margin model predicts St Helens by 6.4 points with a combined total of 36.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.25

Winner ✓

Edge

-18.7%

Line / Spread

St Helens +6.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R6W
R7W
R8L
R9L
R10L

older → newer

15.2
Catalans Dragons
R6L
R7W
R8W
R9W
R10L
27.4

Avg Conceded

20.0

St Helens

17.6

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

-4.8

St Helens

9.8

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

1047

St Helens

770

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

4.0

St Helens

2.8

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 3-2
Mar 2026STH 36 - 4 CAT
Apr 2025STH 14 - 13 CAT
Feb 2024STH 24 - 12 CAT
Apr 2024STH 8 - 14 CAT
Feb 2023STH 6 - 12 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1519Overall1500
CAT
ELO difference: +18 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

945Forwards904
Best: 1117STH +41Best: 1025
748Backs1026
Best: 841CAT +279Best: 1149
710Halves1000
Best: 710CAT +290Best: 1000
1053Hooker898
STH +155

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
CAT
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
15.2pts
Avg Score
27.4pts
20.0pts
Avg Conceded
17.6pts
-4.8pts
Avg Margin
9.8pts
1047.0m
Run Metres
770.4m
4.0
Clean Breaks
2.8
261.2
Tackles
179.8
9.6
Errors
5.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Dragons
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

61%

St Helens predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 36 · Line: +6.4

3/4 match predictions correct