# St Helens v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 40 – 0 Catalans Dragons

_St Helens run riot over Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 24 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 61% / Catalans Dragons 39% · The BrewDog Stadium · Thu, 15 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: George Whitby (1' 1st), Alex Walmsley (7'), Deon Cross (35'), George Whitby (39' 1st), Tristan Sailor (52' Tipped ⚡), Lewis Murphy (67' Tipped ⚡), George Whitby (71' 1st) · Catalans Dragons: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 61% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.4 predicted → 40 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

St Helens 40–0 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 11 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

George Whitby needed one minute to get St Helens moving, and by the time he'd added his third try in the 39th, the contest was already finished as a contest. St Helens led 24-0 at the break. Nothing that happened after that changed the story, it just made the final number bigger.

The scoreboard tells you it finished 40-0. What it doesn't tell you is how early the damage was done. Whitby opened it inside the first minute, Alex Walmsley barged over in the 7th, and by half-time St Helens had four tries banked and Catalans hadn't laid a hand on the board. Whitby alone had a hand in five of St Helens' six first-half points-scoring moments, either scoring or converting.

Catalans came in with the better backline on paper, rated 1026 to St Helens' 748, and a halves pairing rated a full 290 points clear. None of it showed up on the field. St Helens ran for 1,158 metres to Catalans' 528, more than double, and broke the line eight times to Catalans' one. Forty-three tackle busts to 15 tells you St Helens weren't just getting metres, they were getting through bodies.

Whitby finished with a hat-trick, adding his third in the 71st minute after Deon Cross, Tristan Sailor and Lewis Murphy had all crossed either side of it. Walmsley's early try set the tone up front, and with St Helens' forward pack rated only narrowly ahead of Catalans' (945 to 904) on paper, the gap in the run-metre column suggests the forwards did rather more than "narrowly" outplay their opposite numbers on the day.

Catalans weren't sloppy with the ball, in fact they were the tidier side, coughing it up eight times to St Helens' nine. It didn't matter. When you're conceding line breaks at an 8-to-1 clip and getting outrun by more than 600 metres, discipline with the footy is a footnote. St Helens also came out ahead on penalties, two to three, so there wasn't even a territory or refereeing tailwind for Catalans to point to.

Form lines going in had Catalans as the healthier side, three wins from five to St Helens' two, and averaging nearly 20 points more per game. St Helens had actually been leaking points at an average of 20 a match and winning by nothing, averaging a negative margin over their last five. Whatever was going wrong for them recently, it didn't turn up at The BrewDog Stadium.

Alphr's model backed St Helens to win at 61 percent, which was the easy part. The margin was where it fell over, tipped at 6.4 and landing 40, one of the heavier misses you'll see. The total score read was closer, 36 predicted against 40 actual, within four points. Call it 3 from 15 on this one: right winner, wrong gap, and a reminder that a form line from five weeks ago can be worth exactly nothing on the day.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,158** | Run metres | 528 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **43** | Tackle busts | 15 |
| **9** | Offloads | 5 |
| 9 | Errors | **8** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 0 |
| 6/7 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 9 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.4 but the actual margin was 40 points. Total score prediction of 36 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. St Helens led 24–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 40. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties St Helens 2 · Catalans Dragons 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 61.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 6 · Predicted total: 36

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 61%, but Catalans Dragons stay live at 39%. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for St Helens.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has St Helens by 6.4, with the two sides combining for about 36. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 15.2pts | Avg Score | 27.4pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | 9.8pts |
| 1047.0m | Run Metres | 770.4m |
| 4.0 | Clean Breaks | 2.8 |
| 261.2 | Tackles | 179.8 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 5.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L | 15.2 |
| Catalans Dragons | R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 L | 27.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | St Helens | 34 – 18 | Catalans Dragons | St Helens 59% ✓ |
| 2026 | R3 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 36 | St Helens | St Helens 56% ✓ |
| 2025 | R6 | Catalans Dragons | 13 – 14 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 24 – 12 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R7 | Catalans Dragons | 14 – 8 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 7th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Percival, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 9th-ranked right edge attack (0.5 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 5th there (0.6 conceded/game). Key man: Makinson, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.4/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.9/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.9/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.2/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 5th) | 0.5/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 3 | 1 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 195m/g | 24m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 0.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 93.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 14 | 11 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 438m/g | 412m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.2/g | 13.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.4% | 88.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 1 | 1 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 322m/g | 166m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 1.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Five-Eighths 0.17/g (lg 0.18) -6%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.34/g (lg 0.37) -8% · Wingers 0.72/g (lg 0.86) -16% · Five-Eighths 0.13/g (lg 0.18) -28%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 34/57g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Tristan Sailor | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (4·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 4/4g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.67 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $29.05 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 3 | Deon Cross | CE | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/5g | 22% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 5/18g | 17/44g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.33 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (4·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/3g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.88 AI 19% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| 6 | George Whitby | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 1' 39' 71' |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 13/56g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/21g | 9/49g | 8% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 5/19g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/48g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/31g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 5/16g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.48 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.67 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Moses Mbye | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 5/34g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.42 AI 22% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Jake Wingfield | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/25g | 6% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 2 | Fouad Yaha | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.71 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.26 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.57 AI 29% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $28.36 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.79 AI 27% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $29.91 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 6 | Theo Fages | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Satae | PR | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/11g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Paul Seguier | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tevita Pangai Junior | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Tariq Sims | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Arthur Romano | INT | 0 in 7g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1519 · Catalans Dragons 1500 · ELO difference: 18 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — St Helens predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 36 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)