# Leeds Rhinos v Hull FC — Super League Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 18 – 16 Hull FC

_Leeds Rhinos surge back to charge down Hull FC._

Half time: 4 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 72% / Hull FC 28% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Fri, 16 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: James McDonnell (39' Tipped ⚡), Tom Holroyd (49'), Riley Lumb (66' Tipped ⚡), Ryan Hall (78' Tipped ⚡) · Hull FC: Lewis Martin (28' 1st Tipped 🎯), Sam Eseh (36'), Harvey Barron (44' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 72% | Won |
| Hull FC | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.8 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 18–16 Hull FC in Super League Round 11 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos edged Hull FC 18–16 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Trailing 10–4 at half-time, Leeds Rhinos flipped the game after the break.

Lewis Martin opened the scoring; Leeds Rhinos crossed through James McDonnell, Tom Holroyd, Riley Lumb and Ryan Hall; Hull FC scored through Lewis Martin, Sam Eseh and Harvey Barron.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 72% probability. The predicted margin of 12.8 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Leeds Rhinos trailed 4–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–16. The model went 7/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 72.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — model probability 72.4% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — model probability 72.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 13 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 72% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 174 ELO points clear, 1567 to 1393. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Hull FC.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 12.8, with the two sides combining for about 41. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.2pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 9.2pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| 11.0pts | Avg Margin | -3.6pts |
| 1193.8m | Run Metres | 1069.4m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.0 |
| 292.2 | Tackles | 275.8 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 W | 20.2 |
| Hull FC | R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 18 | Hull FC | Leeds Rhinos 75% ✗ |
| 2026 | R5 | Hull FC | 24 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 68% ✗ |
| 2025 | R24 | Hull FC | 0 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull FC | 12 – 18 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R25 | Leeds Rhinos | 68 – 6 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 7th there (0.7 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.6 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.9/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.1/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.7/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.4/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.8/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 98m/g | 145m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.5% | 89% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 5th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 12 | 16 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 523m/g | 380m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 78.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 2 | 7 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 319m/g | 362m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 9.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 91% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.18) +67% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.18) +50% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22% · Centres 0.38/g (lg 0.37) +3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 4/16g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.86 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/1g | 3/6g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.02 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 6/16g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 13/17g | 10/13g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.97 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 8/16g | 3/6g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.03 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 6/15g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/17g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·4·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/17g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.71 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 9/15g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Cam Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 3/15g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/8g | 8% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 17 | James Bentley | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 2/11g | 14% | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Pryce | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.28 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.29 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| 3 | Jordan Rapana | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.45 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $27.49 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 28' |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 27% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Briscoe | INT | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.67 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $29.08 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Eseh | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 0% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 17 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1567 · Hull FC 1393 · ELO difference: 174 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull FC |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)