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Super League | Round 11

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AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • FRIDAY 16 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

1816
HUL

Hull

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 72%

AI Win Probability

72%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

72%

Hull

28%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. Leeds Rhinos carry a 174-point ELO rating advantage (1567 vs 1393). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hull. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 12.8 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.30

Winner ✓

Edge

-4.5%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +12.8 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R6L
R7W
R8W
R9L
R10W

older → newer

20.2
Hull
R6W
R7W
R8L
R9L
R10L
17.6

Avg Conceded

9.2

Leeds Rhinos

21.2

Hull

Avg Margin

11.0

Leeds Rhinos

-3.6

Hull

Run Metres

1194

Leeds Rhinos

1069

Hull

Clean Breaks

4.4

Leeds Rhinos

4.0

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2
Apr 2026LEE 16 - 24 HUL
Aug 2025LEE 34 - 0 HUL
Feb 2024LEE 18 - 12 HUL
Sep 2024LEE 68 - 6 HUL
Jun 2024LEE 10 - 18 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1567Overall1393
HUL
ELO difference: +174 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

788Forwards872
Best: 1005HUL +84Best: 1279
809Backs838
Best: 948HUL +29Best: 993
706Halves913
Best: 706HUL +206Best: 913
867Hooker839
LEE +28

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
HUL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
20.2pts
Avg Score
17.6pts
9.2pts
Avg Conceded
21.2pts
11.0pts
Avg Margin
-3.6pts
1193.8m
Run Metres
1069.4m
4.4
Clean Breaks
4.0
292.2
Tackles
275.8
8.8
Errors
9.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

72%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 13 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +12.8

3/4 match predictions correct