# Hull KR v Huddersfield Giants — Super League Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 34 – 0 Huddersfield Giants

_Hull KR put Huddersfield Giants to the sword._

Half time: 4 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 79% / Huddersfield Giants 21% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sat, 17 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Joe Burgess (13' 1st), Mikey Lewis (58' Tipped ⚡), Tyrone May (62'), Kelepi Tanginoa (64'), Jack Brown (72'), Joe Burgess (76' 1st) · Huddersfield Giants: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 79% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.3 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Huddersfield Giants Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Hull KR 34–0 Huddersfield Giants in Super League Round 11 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Hull KR winning this one by 14.3 points, on a combined total of 44. Final score: Hull KR 34, Huddersfield Giants 0. The head-to-head pick was never in doubt at 79%, but the margin model got run over. Off by nearly 20 points. Worth walking back through the game to see exactly where that read fell apart.

For a half, it looked close to script. Hull KR led 4-0 at the break after Joe Burgess crossed in the 13th minute, and Huddersfield were still very much in the contest on the sheet, if not the scoreboard. A four-point margin at half-time doesn't scream 34-0. The Giants' last-five form had them at 1 win from 5, averaging under 21 points a game across the season, so nobody watching expected them to run away with it either. But nobody had this specific version of one-sided in mind.

Then the second half happened, and happened fast. Mikey Lewis scored in the 58th minute, and from there it was carnage: Tyrone May four minutes later, Kelepi Tanginoa two minutes after that, Jack Brown in the 72nd, and Burgess back again for his second in the 76th. Arthur Mourgue slotted every conversion. Five tries in nineteen minutes. That's the passage that broke the margin model, and it's not hard to see why once you look at the underlying numbers.

Hull KR's halves and hooker ratings going in were 1092 and 1136 against Huddersfield's 816 and 722. That gap is exactly the kind of thing that shows up late, when go-forward stalls and cleaner sides start finding gaps that weren't there in the first 40. The line break count tells the story on its own: 10 to 0. Not a single clean break for Huddersfield all match. Add 34 tackle busts to 21 and 14 offloads to Huddersfield's 3, and you've got a side that had no answer once Hull KR's spine started controlling the ruck.

Oddly enough, Huddersfield were the tidier side with ball in hand, 10 errors to Hull KR's 12. Doesn't matter much when you can't get past the line. Run metres tell the real story: 1,325 to 693, almost double. Discipline went Hull KR's way too, 3 penalties conceded to 6, which just compounded the field position problem for the Giants all night.

None of this should have been a total shock given the form lines walking in. Hull KR came in on a 4-1 run averaging 32.8 points a game and conceding just 12. Huddersfield were 1-4, averaging 10.4 for and 31.2 against, an average margin of minus-20.8. Put those two form lines together and 34-0 isn't some wild outlier, it's close to the middle of the range.

So the model's win call held up fine. The margin number just wasn't built for a team finding five tries in the last third of the match. Alphr went 2 from 15 on this one, and the miss here was entirely about scale, not direction. Hull KR were always going to win it. Nobody had them winning it by that much.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **1,325** | Run metres | 693 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 0 |
| **34** | Tackle busts | 21 |
| **14** | Offloads | 3 |
| 12 | Errors | **10** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 0 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 12 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.3 but the actual margin was 34 points. Hull KR led 4–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (21/100) — penalties Hull KR 3 · Huddersfield Giants 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 79.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 14 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 79% to see off Huddersfield Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 486 ELO points clear, 1756 to 1270. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Huddersfield Giants.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 14.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 32.8pts | Avg Score | 10.4pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Conceded | 31.2pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Margin | -20.8pts |
| 1441.2m | Run Metres | 856.2m |
| 7.0 | Clean Breaks | 2.0 |
| 279.4 | Tackles | 258.6 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W | 32.8 |
| Huddersfield Giants | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 W | 10.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Hull KR | 36 – 6 | Huddersfield Giants | Hull KR 62% ✓ |
| 2026 | R4 | Huddersfield Giants | 6 – 32 | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants 54% ✗ |
| 2025 | R6 | Huddersfield Giants | 4 – 50 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Huddersfield Giants | 12 – 24 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | R14 | Hull KR | 32 – 6 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.3 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 11th there (2.1 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 3rd there (0.7 conceded/game). Key man: Gagai, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.3/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.3/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.3/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 2.1/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.4/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.4/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 2 | 3 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 192m/g | 81m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 88.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 11 | 7 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 571m/g | 320m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.6/g | 9.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.2% | 79.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 1 | 4 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 288m/g | 169m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.1% | 92.8% |

**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Centres 0.52/g (lg 0.37) +41% · Wingers 1.19/g (lg 0.86) +38% · Five-Eighths 0.22/g (lg 0.18) +22%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.18) +0% · Props 0.12/g (lg 0.12) +0% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.09) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 4/11g | 0/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.01 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 10/14g | 3/7g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.19 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Noah Booth | CE | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.87 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/7g | 6/11g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/13g | 12/14g | 32% | — | 🏉 13' 76' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 8 in 8g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·3·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 19/36g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.05 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/17g | 12% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 8 | Dean Hadley | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/15g | 1/34g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 2/9g | 6/41g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 57% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 3/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/11g | 10/27g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.88 AI 55% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/39g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 1/29g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 6/18g | 26% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 16 | Jack Brown | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/13g | 0% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Flanagan | FB | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 25% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Adam Swift | WG | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 10/12g | 2/2g | 58% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Sam Halsall | CE | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 32% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Taane Milne | CE | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Jacob Gagai | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.17 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.50 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Adam Clune | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Kieran Rush | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Oliver Wilson | PR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Greenwood | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jake Bibby | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Sam Hewitt | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Leroy Cudjoe | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Ashton Golding | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty English | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | George King | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/34g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Harry Rushton | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1756 · Huddersfield Giants 1270 · ELO difference: 486 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)