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Super League | Round 11

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SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • SATURDAY 17 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

340
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 79%

AI Win Probability

79%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

79%

Huddersfield Giants

21%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Huddersfield Giants. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull KR carry a 486-point ELO rating advantage (1756 vs 1270). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 14.3 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.07

Winner ✓

Edge

-14.1%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +14.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R6W
R7L
R8W
R9W
R10W

older → newer

32.8
Huddersfield Giants
R6L
R7L
R8L
R9L
R10W
10.4

Avg Conceded

12.0

Hull KR

31.2

Huddersfield Giants

Avg Margin

20.8

Hull KR

-20.8

Huddersfield Giants

Run Metres

1441

Hull KR

856

Huddersfield Giants

Clean Breaks

7.0

Hull KR

2.0

Huddersfield Giants

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 5-0
Mar 2026HKR 32 - 6 HUD
Apr 2025HKR 50 - 4 HUD
Feb 2024HKR 24 - 12 HUD
Jun 2024HKR 32 - 6 HUD
Sep 2023HKR 26 - 18 HUD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1756Overall1270
HUD
ELO difference: +486 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

954Forwards960
Best: 1215EvenBest: 1230
926Backs691
Best: 1143HKR +235Best: 750
1092Halves816
Best: 1092HKR +276Best: 816
1136Hooker722
HKR +415

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
HUD
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
32.8pts
Avg Score
10.4pts
12.0pts
Avg Conceded
31.2pts
20.8pts
Avg Margin
-20.8pts
1441.2m
Run Metres
856.2m
7.0
Clean Breaks
2.0
279.4
Tackles
258.6
9.0
Errors
10.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

79%

Hull KR predicted to win by 14 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +14.3

2/4 match predictions correct