Castleford Tigers
Salford Red Devils
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
56%
Salford Red Devils
44%
AI Match Overview
Castleford Tigers hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Salford Red Devils are far from out of this at 44%. Salford Red Devils are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Venue Advantage, but Castleford Tigers counter with Forward Pack and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Recent form favours Castleford Tigers with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Castleford Tigers by 12.8 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Castleford Tigers to Win @1.20
Winner ✓
Edge
-27.4%
Line / Spread
Castleford Tigers +12.8 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Castleford Tigers 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R6L R7L R8L R9W R10L older → newer | 14.0 |
Salford Red Devils | R6L R7L R8L R9L R10L | 3.2 |
Avg Conceded
20.2
Castleford Tigers
40.4
Salford Red Devils
Avg Margin
-6.2
Castleford Tigers
-37.2
Salford Red Devils
Run Metres
911
Castleford Tigers
631
Salford Red Devils
Clean Breaks
2.2
Castleford Tigers
2.0
Salford Red Devils
ELO–Market Disagreement
Salford Red Devils hold the ELO advantage (1286 vs 1279), but the market favours Castleford Tigers (@1.20).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +12.8