# Castleford Tigers v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 48 – 16 Salford Red Devils

_Castleford Tigers put Salford Red Devils to the sword._

Half time: 24 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 56% / Salford Red Devils 44% · The Jungle · Sun, 18 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Tex Hoy (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Zac Cini (18' Tipped ⚡), Innes Senior (26' Tipped ⚡), Tex Hoy (37' 1st Tipped ⚡), Muizz Mustapha (56'), Tex Hoy (62' 1st Tipped ⚡), Alex Mellor (72'), Daejarn Asi (77') · Salford Red Devils: Matthew Foster (42'), Nene Macdonald (47'), Nene Macdonald (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | 56% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.8 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 11 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:13 pm_

Castleford Tigers 48–16 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 11 at The Jungle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-four nil at the break, and by full time it was 48-16. So no, Salford didn't find anything Castleford couldn't answer, they just found enough to make the second half look less embarrassing than the first.

The opening forty was as one-sided as the ledger suggests. Tex Hoy crossed inside six minutes, Zac Cini added one on 18, Innes Senior on 26, and Hoy again right on the stroke of half-time. Four tries, none replied to, 24-0 on the board before Salford had managed a point. Rowan Milnes slotted every conversion going. That's about as clean a first half as you'll see in this competition.

Salford did have a response in them. Matthew Foster crossed two minutes into the second half, Nene Macdonald followed on 47, and suddenly it was 24-10 with the game theoretically alive. It wasn't, really. Castleford answered through Muizz Mustapha, then Hoy completed his hat-trick on 62, Alex Mellor added a fifth-tries-worth of separation on 72, and by the time Daejarn Asi scored in the 77th minute the only thing left to settle was the final margin. Macdonald's second, right at the death, was tidying up rather than threatening.

The stat sheet doesn't scream 32-point blowout, and that's the interesting bit. Run metres were basically even, 1,185 to 1,161. Line breaks were tied at six apiece. Salford actually shaded the tackle-bust count, 18 to 17, and doubled Castleford up on offloads, 10 to 6. Errors were level at eight each. On paper this reads like a contest. On the scoreboard it reads like anything but, which tells you Castleford's edge was less about field position and more about what they did with the ball once it mattered, seven tries to two says plenty on its own.

Individually it was the Tex Hoy show, a hat-trick that bookended both halves and set the tone from the sixth minute. Nene Macdonald was the shining light for Salford with two tries, most of it damage limitation rather than a genuine fightback.

The form lines going in explain a fair bit. Castleford arrived with one win from five and an average margin of minus 6.2. Salford were 0 from 5, conceding an average of 40.4 points a game with a margin of minus 37.2. Neither side had history worth bragging about, but Castleford's backs rated 962 to Salford's 768, and that gap showed up in exactly the way you'd expect: out wide, in broken play, and on the scoreboard.

Alphr's model backed Castleford at 56 percent and got the winner right. Where it fell over was the margin, tipping a 12.8-point win and a 42-point total. The Tigers won by 32 and the game produced 64 points, 22 more than forecast. Four from 15 on the finer detail for this one. Salford's halves rating actually sat above Castleford's, 1010 to 810, which should have kept this competitive on paper. It didn't lay a glove on the scoreboard.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| **1,185** | Run metres | 1,161 |
| 6 | Line breaks | 6 |
| 17 | Tackle busts | **18** |
| 6 | Offloads | **10** |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 8/8 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Castleford Tigers to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.8 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 64 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 42. Castleford Tigers led 24–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (9/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 5 · Salford Red Devils 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Castleford Tigers to win — model probability 56.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Castleford Tigers 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Castleford Tigers by 13 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Castleford Tigers are the call at 56%, but Salford Red Devils stay live at 44%. Form leans Castleford Tigers' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Salford Red Devils.

On paper Salford Red Devils shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Halves Control, Venue Advantage and H2H History. The model still sides with Castleford Tigers, which says Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Castleford Tigers by 12.8, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Castleford Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 14.0pts | Avg Score | 3.2pts |
| 20.2pts | Avg Conceded | 40.4pts |
| -6.2pts | Avg Margin | -37.2pts |
| 910.6m | Run Metres | 630.6m |
| 2.2 | Clean Breaks | 2.0 |
| 228.8 | Tackles | 228.6 |
| 5.2 | Errors | 6.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L | 14.0 |
| Salford Red Devils | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L | 3.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Salford Red Devils lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R18 | Salford Red Devils | 26 – 22 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2025 | R4 | Castleford Tigers | 22 – 14 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 36 – 24 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R19 | Salford Red Devils | 30 – 22 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2024 | R2 | Salford Red Devils | 26 – 22 | Castleford Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 10th-ranked right edge attack (0.4 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (1.3 conceded/game). Key man: Watkins, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.8/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.2/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.9/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.9/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.3/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.6/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.2/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.4/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2.4/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 5 | 2 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 82m/g | 125m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.2% | 88.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 24 | 2 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 392m/g | 246m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.6/g | 10.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82% | 85.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 8 | 5 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 224m/g | 148m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.5% | 92.1% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.42/g (lg 0.24) +75% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.04) +175% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.18) +83% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.12) +83%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Jungle. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tex Hoy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.79 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 37' 62' |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.73 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.31 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.18 AI 33% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/8g | 0/5g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 9/12g | 1/4g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.81 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| 6 | Rowan Milnes | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/3g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.09 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 8 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Westerman | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/15g | 0/5g | 14% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 13 | Muizz Mustapha | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 56' |
| 14 | Sam Hall | INT | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Louis Senior | INT | no games | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 81% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 16 | Brad Singleton | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Chris Atkin | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethan Ryan | FB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 26% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Chris Hankinson | WG | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Jonny Vaughan | CE | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 5 | Nene Macdonald | WG | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 47' 76' |
| 6 | Ryan Brierley | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Nikorima | HB | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | George Hill | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvey Makin | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Toby Warren | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Salford Red Devils hold the ELO advantage (1286 vs 1279), but the market favours Castleford Tigers (@1.20). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1279 · Salford Red Devils 1286 · ELO difference: 7 in favour of Salford Red Devils

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Salford Red Devils |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:13 UTC (latest tip update)