# Wigan Warriors v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 22 – 20 Warrington Wolves

_Wigan Warriors survive a scare against Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 12 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 81% / Warrington Wolves 19% · St James' Park · Sun, 04 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Jai Field (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Bevan French (12' Tipped ⚡), Abbas Miski (51' Tipped ⚡), Adam Keighran (69') · Warrington Wolves: Jake Thewlis (17'), Rodrick Tai (41'), Joe Philbin (72'), Jake Thewlis (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 81% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.0 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Wigan Warriors 22–20 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 10 at St James' Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Wigan Warriors winning by 15 points. It nailed the winner, missed the margin by a mile. The gap at St James' Park was 2 points, Wigan Warriors 22, Warrington Wolves 20, and anyone who trusted that predicted margin would have spent the last ten minutes with their heart in their mouth.

The 81% win probability held up fine. Wigan Warriors were always the stronger side on paper and they got there in the end. But this was nothing like a comfortable 15-point cruise. It looked that way early enough. Jai Field opened the scoring in the 9th minute, Bevan French followed three minutes later, and with two Adam Keighran conversions Wigan Warriors were out to 12-0 by the 13th minute. That's the version of the match the ratings gap suggested before kick-off: forwards 900 to 811, backs 1015 to 811, halves a lopsided 1136 to 800. Jake Thewlis got Warrington Wolves on the board late in the first half and Wigan Warriors led 12-4 at the break. Job done, it seemed.

It wasn't. Rodrick Tai crossed for Warrington Wolves in the 41st minute and Stefan Ratchford's conversion two minutes into the second half had it at 12-10. A 12-point buffer had shrunk to 2 in less than half an hour of game time. Wigan Warriors steadied through Abbas Miski in the 51st minute and a second Keighran try in the 69th to push out to 22-10, the sort of scoreline that should have shut the door. Instead Warrington Wolves scored twice more inside four minutes, Joe Philbin in the 72nd and a second Jake Thewlis try in the 74th, to make it 22-20 with the clock still running.

The stats explain why it went the distance instead of settling early. Warrington Wolves were the tidier side by some margin, coughing up the ball just 6 times to Wigan Warriors' 11, and they were sharper through the middle too, with six line breaks to three. Discipline went their way as well: 4 penalties conceded against Wigan Warriors' 8. On paper that's a team clawing its way back into the contest, and it very nearly worked.

What kept Wigan Warriors in front was sheer volume through traffic. 1,154 running metres to 615 isn't a marginal edge, it's a gulf, and 27 tackle busts to 14 tells the same story from a different angle. Wigan Warriors leaned on the forward and backline advantage the ratings flagged before kick-off and just kept running it up. Warrington Wolves offloaded 9 times to Wigan Warriors' 2, exactly the kind of second-phase footy a side chasing the game needs to find, and it very nearly got them home.

Form lines pointed the same way as the ratings did. Wigan Warriors arrived on a four-game winning streak, averaging 30.4 points and conceding just 10 a game. Warrington Wolves had won three of their last five but were leaking 18 points a game on average, and conceding 20 here fits that pattern neatly. The win call was clean. The margin was the miss, out by 13 points on what became a 2-point game, while the combined total of 44 landed within 2 of the actual 42. Alphr's model finished 5 from 15 on the round: right on the big call, well off on the detail.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,154** | Run metres | 615 |
| 3 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **27** | Tackle busts | 14 |
| 2 | Offloads | **9** |
| 11 | Errors | **6** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **4** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 11 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 81% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.0 but the actual margin was 2 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (49/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 8 · Warrington Wolves 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 81.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 15 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 81% to see off Warrington Wolves. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 205 ELO points clear, 1778 to 1573. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Warrington Wolves.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 15.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 30.4pts | Avg Score | 18.4pts |
| 10.0pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| 20.4pts | Avg Margin | 0.4pts |
| 1301.8m | Run Metres | 698.4m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 317.2 | Tackles | 248.2 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 7.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 30.4 |
| Warrington Wolves | R5 W · R6 W · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W | 18.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Wigan Warriors | 30 – 18 | Warrington Wolves | Wigan Warriors 54% ✓ |
| 2026 | R9 | Warrington Wolves | 23 – 6 | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves 66% ✓ |
| 2025 | R21 | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 24 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Wigan Warriors | 48 – 24 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 19 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 10th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Wardle, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 2nd there (0.56 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.89/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.44/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.22/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.89/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.89/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 1 | 3 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 161m/g | 126m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.4/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.1% | 91.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 9 | 20 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 531m/g | 279m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.6/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.6% | 82.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 1 | 0 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 366m/g | 242m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.9/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 94.8% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — 2nd Rows 0.29/g (lg 0.24) +21% · Props 0.12/g (lg 0.11) +9% · Halfbacks 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.15/g (lg 0.24) -37% · Wingers 0.48/g (lg 0.86) -44%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at St James' Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 11 in 8g | 12/10g (1·0·0·3·1·1·2·1·2·1) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.22 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.71 AI 18% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| 2 | Abbas Miski | WG | 6 in 5g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·2·1) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.42 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.11 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 8 in 9g | 8/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·3·1·0·1) | 5/8g | 2/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.72 AI 59% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 19/14g | 1/3g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·2) | 3/7g | 3/2g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.48 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.57 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.46 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 1/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvie Hill | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Walters | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/2g | 28% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Arron Lindop | CE | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (1·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.13 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.23 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Rodrick Tai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 41' |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 17' 74' |
| 6 | Stefan Ratchford | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Oli Leyland | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Powell | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | James Harrison | INT | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/2g | 4% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 16 | Zane Musgrove | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Jordy Crowther | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1778 · Warrington Wolves 1573 · ELO difference: 205 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)