Skip to main content

Super League | Round 10

alphr.com.au

ST JAMES' PARK • SATURDAY 3 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
STH

St Helens

417
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

❌ Upset — model favoured St Helens at 64%

AI Win Probability

64%St HelensFavourite

St Helens

64%

Leeds Rhinos

36%

AI Match Overview

St Helens hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Leeds Rhinos are far from out of this at 36%. Leeds Rhinos are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate, but St Helens counter with ELO Difference and H2H History which tips the scales. Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Helens. The margin model predicts St Helens by 5.8 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.72

Lost ✗

Edge

+6.3%

Line / Spread

St Helens +5.8 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R5L
R6W
R7W
R8L
R9L

older → newer

16.8
Leeds Rhinos
R5W
R6L
R7W
R8W
R9L
19.2

Avg Conceded

19.4

St Helens

10.4

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

-2.6

St Helens

8.8

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1079

St Helens

1187

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

4.4

St Helens

3.8

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 5-0
Sep 2025STH 16 - 14 LEE
Jul 2025STH 6 - 0 LEE
Jun 2025STH 18 - 4 LEE
Feb 2024STH 18 - 8 LEE
Feb 2024STH 40 - 10 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1552Overall1536
LEE
ELO difference: +16 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

781Forwards917
Best: 996LEE +136Best: 1175
881Backs914
Best: 1068LEE +34Best: 1118
719Halves798
Best: 719LEE +79Best: 798
1000Hooker733
STH +267

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
LEE
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
16.8pts
Avg Score
19.2pts
19.4pts
Avg Conceded
10.4pts
-2.6pts
Avg Margin
8.8pts
1079.4m
Run Metres
1187.0m
4.4
Clean Breaks
3.8
255.8
Tackles
302.4
9.0
Errors
8.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

64%

St Helens predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +5.8

0/4 match predictions correct