St Helens
Leeds Rhinos
AI Win Probability
St Helens
64%
Leeds Rhinos
36%
AI Match Overview
St Helens hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Leeds Rhinos are far from out of this at 36%. Leeds Rhinos are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate, but St Helens counter with ELO Difference and H2H History which tips the scales. Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Helens. The margin model predicts St Helens by 5.8 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Helens to Win @1.72
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.3%
Line / Spread
St Helens +5.8 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Helens | R5L R6W R7W R8L R9L older → newer | 16.8 |
Leeds Rhinos | R5W R6L R7W R8W R9L | 19.2 |
Avg Conceded
19.4
St Helens
10.4
Leeds Rhinos
Avg Margin
-2.6
St Helens
8.8
Leeds Rhinos
Run Metres
1079
St Helens
1187
Leeds Rhinos
Clean Breaks
4.4
St Helens
3.8
Leeds Rhinos
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
St Helens predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +5.8