# St Helens v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 4 – 17 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos charge down St Helens._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 64% / Leeds Rhinos 36% · St James' Park · Sat, 03 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Matt Whitley (46') · Leeds Rhinos: Riley Lumb (2' 1st Tipped 🎯), Lachlan Miller (13' Tipped ⚡), Morgan Gannon (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 64% | Lost |
| Leeds Rhinos | 36% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

St Helens 4–17 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 10 at St James' Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had St Helens winning this one by 5.8 points, with a combined score around 45. Leeds Rhinos won it by 13, and the two sides put up 21 between them. Both numbers went the wrong way, and the model finished 3 from 15 on this match. A rough night for the read, and a rougher one for St Helens.

The pattern was set early. Riley Lumb crossed inside two minutes to get Leeds on the board, and Lachlan Miller followed up in the 13th before converting his own try a minute later to make it 0-10. St Helens didn't get on the scoreboard until Matt Whitley's try in the 46th, and by then Leeds had already done the damage that mattered. Morgan Gannon's try in the 76th, converted by Miller, put the gloss on it at 4-17.

Look at the line break count and it tells you plenty: Leeds four, St Helens two. Leeds also shaded run metres, 1,228 to 1,043. Those are the two numbers that actually decide footy matches, and Leeds won both.

St Helens weren't without answers. They doubled Leeds on tackle busts, 46 to 20, and edged the offloads count 11 to 8. That's a side making metres after contact and finding support hands, which sounds promising until you realise it never turned into points outside of the one Whitley try. Errors were level at 14 apiece, penalties level at 3 apiece, so it wasn't a discipline story. It was a converting-pressure-into-points story, and only one team could do it.

The positional ratings pointed this way before kick-off. Leeds came in stronger up front, 917 to 781, and in the halves, 798 to 719, the two areas that tend to show up exactly where this game was decided: field position and who controls the back end of sets. St Helens had the clear hooker advantage, 1000 to 733, which probably explains the tackle bust and offload numbers, quick play-the-balls creating that extra half-metre. It just never translated to tries.

Form lined up too. Leeds arrived averaging 19.2 points scored and conceding just 10.4, with three wins from their last five. St Helens were leaking 19.4 a game with an average margin of minus 2.6. Leeds' defensive average alone should have been a warning sign, and on this occasion it held up almost exactly, four points conceded against a season figure of 10.4.

So where did the model go wrong? It backed St Helens' attacking supplementary numbers, the tackle busts and offloads that never arrived here, and underrated how much a stronger forward pack and better halves pairing show up in the only column that counts, the scoreboard. Leeds controlled field position from the second minute and never really let it go.

For St Helens, there's something to salvage in the shape of their carries, just not in the result. For Leeds, three tries, a comfortable margin, and a defensive read that matched their season number to the point.

Wins and misses, all of it. This one was a miss, and a fair-sized one.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1,043 | Run metres | **1,228** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **4** |
| **46** | Tackle busts | 20 |
| **11** | Offloads | 8 |
| 14 | Errors | 14 |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 0/1 | Goals | 2/4 |
| 0 | Field Goals | 1 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 14 | Errors | 14 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Leeds Rhinos defied the model's 64% prediction for St Helens, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.8 but the actual margin was 13 points. The game's 21 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (8/100) — penalties St Helens 3 · Leeds Rhinos 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 64.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 6 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 64%, but Leeds Rhinos stay live at 36%. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for St Helens.

On paper Leeds Rhinos shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with St Helens, which says ELO Difference and H2H History carry the most weight. The margin model has St Helens by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 19.4pts | Avg Conceded | 10.4pts |
| -2.6pts | Avg Margin | 8.8pts |
| 1079.4m | Run Metres | 1187.0m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 255.8 | Tackles | 302.4 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 8.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 L | 16.8 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | St Helens | 6 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 65% ✓ |
| 2026 | R13 | Leeds Rhinos | 24 – 16 | St Helens | St Helens 53% ✗ |
| 2025 | EF | Leeds Rhinos | 14 – 16 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R18 | Leeds Rhinos | 0 – 6 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R15 | St Helens | 18 – 4 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.11 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.78 conceded/game). Key man: Sailor, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.44 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 4th there (0.56 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.11/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.11/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.78/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.22/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.44/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 3 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 200m/g | 91m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 2.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 95.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 5th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 12 | 19 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 439m/g | 515m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.2/g | 17.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.3% | 87.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 1 | 7 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 339m/g | 315m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.3% | 94.4% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22% · Centres 0.38/g (lg 0.37) +3%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.35/g (lg 0.37) -5% · Wingers 0.71/g (lg 0.86) -17% · Five-Eighths 0.14/g (lg 0.18) -22%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at St James' Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 6 in 9g | 6/9g (4·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.14 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.33 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.07 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.85 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Deon Cross | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 5/14g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.88 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (1·4·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.24 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jack Welsby | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 1/3g | 34% | — | — |
| 7 | George Whitby | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Agnatius Paasi | PR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Moses Mbye | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/14g | 2/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Jonny Lomax | INT | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Alex Walmsley | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/16g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Daryl Clark | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/22g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.90 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.53 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 21% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 16/20g | 1/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.02 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.48 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Alfie Edgell | WG | 0 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·4·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/18g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 76' |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·4·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.63 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 8/19g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | James Bentley | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1552 · Leeds Rhinos 1536 · ELO difference: 16 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — St Helens predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)