# Leigh Leopards v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 26 – 24 Catalans Dragons

_Leigh Leopards hit back to hunt down Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 12 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 53% / Catalans Dragons 47% · St James' Park · Sat, 03 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Edwin Ipape (23' Tipped ⚡), Ben McNamara (38'), Ethan O'Neill (47'), Owen Trout (61') · Catalans Dragons: Matthieu Laguerre (4' 1st), Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet (15'), Reimis Smith (43'), Luke Keary (67')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 53% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Leigh Leopards 26–24 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 10 at St James' Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seven hundred and thirty three metres. That's the gap Leigh Leopards put between themselves and Catalans Dragons with ball in hand, 1,304 run metres to 571, and it's the number that explains how a side down 12-14 at the break walked out of St James' Park 26-24 winners.

Catalans led at half-time and led on the stat sheet where it usually counts most, errors, coughing it up just 6 times to Leigh's 9. But this game wasn't decided by who held onto the ball. It was decided by what happened when they did. Leigh broke the line seven times to Catalans' one, busted 41 tackles to 16, and offloaded a dozen times against Catalans' 7. Catalans were tidy. Leigh were the ones doing damage.

The scoreboard tells the story in bursts. Laguerre opened it inside four minutes and Aispuro-Bichet's double had Catalans out to 0-12 by the 17th, the sort of start that should have put the game away against a side with Leigh's -3.2 average margin over their last five. Instead Ipape hit back before the half-hour, McNamara's try right on the stroke of half-time trimmed it to 12-14, and the contest that looked over inside twenty minutes was still very much alive at the break.

Second half, Leigh took over. Reimis Smith's try nudged Catalans back to 12-18 early, but from there it was almost all Leopards: O'Neill in the 47th, McNamara's penalty goal in the 57th, then Owen Trout crashing over in the 61st to make it 24-18 and change the complexion of the whole night. Keary's late try and Aispuro-Bichet's conversion got Catalans within two, but there wasn't time left to find any more.

McNamara was the difference-maker with the boot and the ball, a try and four successful kicks including the penalty goal that shifted Leigh in front for good. Aispuro-Bichet did the heavy lifting for Catalans, a try and three conversions plus the earlier penalty, but he was fighting a losing battle against a Leigh pack that kept finding metres Catalans simply couldn't match.

That discrepancy in go-forward is worth sitting with given the pre-match positional read had Catalans's forwards rated higher, 980 to 886, and their halves well ahead too, 1000 to 771. On paper Catalans should have controlled territory. On the day it was Leigh's backs, rated 986 to 884, who did the damage, and the tackle-bust and line-break numbers back that up completely.

Catalans conceded just 1 penalty to Leigh's 5, discipline that should have counted for something in a two-point game. It didn't, because being the more careful side with the whistle and the ball means nothing if you're getting steamrolled for metres.

Alphr's model had this one right down to the point, tipping Leigh Leopards at 53% and calling the margin at 2, dead on the actual result. Given Leigh came into the round with a shakier recent record than Catalans, three wins from five against four, that's a sharp read, and the sort of result the model will happily take.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,304** | Run metres | 571 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **41** | Tackle busts | 16 |
| **12** | Offloads | 7 |
| 9 | Errors | **6** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **1** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 5/5 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 1 |
| 9 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 53% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Leigh Leopards by 2.0 vs the actual margin of 2 points. Leigh Leopards trailed 12–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 26–24. The model went 3/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Controversial** (65/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 5 · Catalans Dragons 1.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 53.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 2 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Leigh Leopards and Catalans Dragons. The model can't split them, landing on Leigh Leopards at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 67 ELO points clear, 1585 to 1518. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Leigh Leopards.

On paper Catalans Dragons shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The model still sides with Leigh Leopards, which says ELO Difference and Backline Quality carry the most weight. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 42. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 27.8pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 13.2pts |
| -3.2pts | Avg Margin | 14.6pts |
| 1259.4m | Run Metres | 827.2m |
| 4.0 | Clean Breaks | 2.8 |
| 329.0 | Tackles | 182.6 |
| 8.4 | Errors | 5.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R5 L · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 16.0 |
| Catalans Dragons | R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 27.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Catalans Dragons | 18 – 33 | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons 52% ✗ |
| 2026 | R4 | Leigh Leopards | 16 – 22 | Catalans Dragons | Leigh Leopards 70% ✗ |
| 2025 | R15 | Catalans Dragons | 12 – 26 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Leigh Leopards | 34 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 30 – 2 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 7th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (0.89 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 7th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Satae, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.44/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 0.89/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 7th) | 0.89/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.11/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.56/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.44/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.44/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 1 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 141m/g | 27m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.5% | 93.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 9 | 9 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 573m/g | 427m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.1/g | 13.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.7% | 87.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 6 | 1 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 384m/g | 171m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 2.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95% | 94.1% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22% · Props 0.11/g (lg 0.11) +0%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Five-Eighths 0.2/g (lg 0.18) +11% · Props 0.12/g (lg 0.11) +9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at St James' Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Darnell Mcintosh | WG | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 4/15g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.86 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 4 | Andrew Badrock | CE | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.65 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $28.91 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 7/14g | 1/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.19 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.68 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Ben McNamara | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.42 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $27.30 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 12 | Owen Trout | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/2g | 2% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Nathan Wilde | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 2 | Fouad Yaha | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.36 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.88 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 43' |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 6 | Luke Keary | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 67' |
| 7 | Theo Fages | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Pangai Junior | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Ben Garcia | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Julian Bousquet | PR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/7g | 1/2g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.42 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Tariq Sims | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Elliott Whitehead | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Alrix Da Costa | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Chris Satae | INT | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.65 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Romain Navarrete | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Bayley Sironen | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1585 · Catalans Dragons 1518 · ELO difference: 67 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)