# Hull KR v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 54 – 0 Salford Red Devils

_Hull KR outfox Salford Red Devils._

Half time: 24 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 75% / Salford Red Devils 25% · St James' Park · Sat, 03 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Dean Hadley (8' 1st), Sam Luckley (22'), Peta Hiku (30' Tipped ⚡), Jez Litten (33'), James Batchelor (47' Tipped ⚡), Noah Booth (52' Tipped ⚡), Jez Litten (67'), Arthur Mourgue (73' Tipped ⚡), Arthur Mourgue (78' Tipped ⚡) · Salford Red Devils: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 75% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 19.3 predicted → 54 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Hull KR 54–0 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 10 at St James' Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at St James' Park read 24-0, and there was no version of the second half that clawed it back. Hull KR simply kept going, adding another 30 points to finish 54-0 over Salford Red Devils. Whatever hope Salford carried into the sheds evaporated inside the opening minutes of the restart.

The damage was already done before the break, mind. Dean Hadley opened the scoring in the 8th minute, and Hull KR added tries through Sam Luckley in the 22nd and Peta Hiku in the 30th before Jez Litten crossed just before half-time to make it 24-0. Four tries in 33 minutes is a horror start for any side to defend.

Salford came out for the second half and conceded again within two minutes, James Batchelor crossing in the 47th. Noah Booth followed in the 52nd, then Litten grabbed his second in the 67th. Arthur Mourgue capped it with a double of his own in the 73rd and 78th minutes, on top of kicking every single conversion Hull KR scored. Eight tries, seven different names on the scoresheet, one bloke doing the boot work all night.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard suggests. Hull KR ran for 1,560 metres to Salford's 568, nearly treble, and broke the line 11 times to 3. Tackle busts told the same story, 39 to 11. Salford were actually the tidier side with ball in hand, conceding just 6 errors to Hull KR's 15, but tidiness counts for nothing when you can't get out of your own end.

What makes it stranger is the positional read going in had Salford's forwards rated above Hull KR's, 900 to 875, and their halves well clear at 1146 to 933. On paper that's a side with the tools to control a game. On the day it didn't show up anywhere that mattered, not in metres, not in line breaks, not on the scoreboard.

Form lines make more sense of it. Hull KR arrived averaging 28 points a game and conceding just 12 across their last five, a WWLWW stretch. Salford were the opposite number, WLLLL, shipping 31.6 a game. Fifty-four points against isn't even wildly out of step with that trend, just the worst version of it.

Alphr's model had Hull KR at 75% to win with a predicted margin of 19.3 off ratings of 1748 to 1295. It nailed the winner and got nowhere near the gap, missing by 35 points as Hull KR's day turned into a rout. Five from fifteen on the underlying calls for this one. Wins and misses, all of it, and this was very much a miss on the number that mattered most.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| **1,560** | Run metres | 568 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **39** | Tackle busts | 11 |
| **11** | Offloads | 4 |
| 15 | Errors | **6** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 0 |
| 9/9 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 15 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 19.3 but the actual margin was 54 points. Hull KR led 24–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (3/100) — penalties Hull KR 4 · Salford Red Devils 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 75.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 19 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 75% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 453 ELO points clear, 1748 to 1295. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Salford Red Devils.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 19.3, with the two sides combining for about 48. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 28.0pts | Avg Score | 7.8pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Conceded | 31.6pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Margin | -23.8pts |
| 1377.2m | Run Metres | 732.8m |
| 6.0 | Clean Breaks | 2.6 |
| 284.4 | Tackles | 244.4 |
| 8.0 | Errors | 7.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R5 W · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 W | 28.0 |
| Salford Red Devils | R5 W · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L | 7.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R20 | Salford Red Devils | 12 – 74 | Hull KR |
| 2025 | R3 | Hull KR | 42 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R24 | Hull KR | 32 – 12 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R3 | Salford Red Devils | 17 – 10 | Hull KR |
| 2023 | — | Salford Red Devils | 26 – 16 | Hull KR |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.22 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Davies, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (0.44 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (0.44 conceded/game). Key man: Watkins, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.22/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.33/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.22/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.44/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.33/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 2 | 2 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 176m/g | 131m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.4/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 89% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 11 | 2 · 29 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 579m/g | 236m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.8/g | 10.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.8% | 86.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 1 | 5 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 271m/g | 154m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 91.9% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.39/g (lg 0.24) +63% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.18) +50% · Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.11) +9% · 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.24) +0% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.18) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at St James' Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.59 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' 78' |
| 2 | Noah Booth | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.79 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.74 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.39 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·1·0) | 11/13g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.74 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.39 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jack Broadbent | WG | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 6/9g | 1/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.58 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 8 in 7g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·2·3·0·1) | 5/8g | 3/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 85% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.48 AI 26% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 33' 67' |
| 10 | Jai Whitbread | PR | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/2g | 4% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/10g | 0/3g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.38 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 47' |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/3g | 4% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 15 | Jack Brown | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Eribe Doro | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayden Nikorima | FB | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 19% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Nathan Connell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.22 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.92 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Jonny Vaughan | CE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Joe Shorrocks | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Kai Morgan | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Davis | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Tiaki Chan | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Hellewell | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Makin | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | George Hill | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Toby Warren | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1748 · Salford Red Devils 1295 · ELO difference: 453 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 19 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)