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Super League | Round 10

alphr.com.au

ST JAMES' PARK • SATURDAY 3 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

540
SAL

Salford Red Devils

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 75%

AI Win Probability

75%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

75%

Salford Red Devils

25%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull KR carry a 453-point ELO rating advantage (1748 vs 1295). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 19.3 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.01

Winner ✓

Edge

-23.7%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +19.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R5W
R6W
R7L
R8W
R9W

older → newer

28.0
Salford Red Devils
R5W
R6L
R7L
R8L
R9L
7.8

Avg Conceded

12.0

Hull KR

31.6

Salford Red Devils

Avg Margin

16.0

Hull KR

-23.8

Salford Red Devils

Run Metres

1377

Hull KR

733

Salford Red Devils

Clean Breaks

6.0

Hull KR

2.6

Salford Red Devils

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 3-2
Jul 2025HKR 74 - 12 SAL
Mar 2025HKR 42 - 0 SAL
Aug 2024HKR 32 - 12 SAL
Mar 2024HKR 10 - 17 SAL
Feb 2023HKR 16 - 26 SAL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1748Overall1295
SAL
ELO difference: +453 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

875Forwards900
Best: 1247SAL +25Best: 1068
988Backs959
Best: 1198HKR +30Best: 1103
933Halves1146
Best: 933SAL +213Best: 1146
1036Hooker1000
HKR +36

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
SAL
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
28.0pts
Avg Score
7.8pts
12.0pts
Avg Conceded
31.6pts
16.0pts
Avg Margin
-23.8pts
1377.2m
Run Metres
732.8m
6.0
Clean Breaks
2.6
284.4
Tackles
244.4
8.0
Errors
7.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

75%

Hull KR predicted to win by 19 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: +19.3

3/4 match predictions correct