# Huddersfield Giants v Hull FC — Super League Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Huddersfield Giants 12 – 10 Hull FC

_Huddersfield Giants hold off a fast-finishing Hull FC._

Half time: 8 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Huddersfield Giants 43% / Hull FC 57% · St James' Park · Sun, 04 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Huddersfield Giants: Leroy Cudjoe (26' 1st), Jacob Gagai (54' Tipped ⚡) · Hull FC: Herman Ese'ese (29' Tipped ⚡), Lewis Martin (57' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | 57% | Lost |
| Huddersfield Giants | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Huddersfield Giants vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Huddersfield Giants 12–10 Hull FC in Super League Round 10 at St James' Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Huddersfield Giants edged Hull FC 12–10 at St James' Park. Huddersfield Giants led 8–6 at half-time and held on.

Leroy Cudjoe opened the scoring; Huddersfield Giants crossed through Leroy Cudjoe and Jacob Gagai; Hull FC scored through Herman Ese'ese and Lewis Martin.

**Model Report Card**

Huddersfield Giants defied the model's 57% prediction for Hull FC, a notable result. The predicted margin of 9.7 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 22 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 41. The model went 3/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull FC to win — model probability 56.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 56.7% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull FC 1-12 — model probability 56.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 10 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull FC are the call at 57%, but Huddersfield Giants stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull FC sit 187 ELO points clear, 1425 to 1239. Form leans Hull FC's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Huddersfield Giants.

On paper Huddersfield Giants shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and H2H History. The model still sides with Hull FC, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Hull FC by 9.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Hull FC, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 10.0pts | Avg Score | 18.8pts |
| 33.8pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -23.8pts | Avg Margin | -2.4pts |
| 817.4m | Run Metres | 1044.4m |
| 1.8 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 255.8 | Tackles | 267.2 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L | 10.0 |
| Hull FC | R5 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 L | 18.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Huddersfield Giants lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Huddersfield Giants | 22 – 16 | Hull FC | Hull FC 58% ✗ |
| 2026 | R14 | Hull FC | 36 – 12 | Huddersfield Giants | Huddersfield Giants 54% ✗ |
| 2025 | R20 | Hull FC | 14 – 30 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Huddersfield Giants | 10 – 11 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull FC | 22 – 56 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 10th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Gagai, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 11th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Huddersfield Giants | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.22/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.11/g (att 5th) · concedes 2.22/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.11/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.89/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.44/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.89/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.78/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 9 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 75m/g | 138m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 88.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 22 | 15 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 301m/g | 393m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.4% | 78.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 5 | 6 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 156m/g | 368m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 9.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.18) +67% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.18) +50% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50%
**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Centres 0.52/g (lg 0.37) +41% · Wingers 1.19/g (lg 0.86) +38% · Five-Eighths 0.22/g (lg 0.18) +22%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at St James' Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Flanagan | FB | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Adam Swift | WG | 3 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 8/8g | 1/1g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.84 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.16 AI 26% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Sam Halsall | CE | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Taane Milne | CE | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Jacob Gagai | WG | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.74 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $22.49 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| 6 | Adam Clune | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 7 | Kieran Rush | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Oliver Wilson | PR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Greenwood | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jake Bibby | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Sam Hewitt | 2R | 1 in 9g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Leroy Cudjoe | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 26' |
| 14 | Ashton Golding | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty English | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Bibby | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Tom Burgess | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Pryce | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.09 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jordan Rapana | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.95 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.47 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.15 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Eseh | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Briscoe | INT | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 7/17g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.34 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.53 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Huddersfield Giants 1239 · Hull FC 1425 · ELO difference: 187 in favour of Hull FC

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull FC |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Huddersfield Giants |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Hull FC predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)