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Super League | Round 10

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ST JAMES' PARK • SUNDAY 4 MAY, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

1210
HUL

Hull

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull at 57%

AI Win Probability

57%HullFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

43%

Hull

57%

AI Match Overview

Hull hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Huddersfield Giants are far from out of this at 43%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Hull carry a 187-point ELO rating advantage (1425 vs 1239). Recent form favours Hull with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Hull by 9.7 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @1.22

Lost ✗

Edge

-25.3%

Line / Spread

Hull -9.7 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R5L
R6L
R7L
R8L
R9L

older → newer

10.0
Hull
R5W
R6W
R7W
R8L
R9L
18.8

Avg Conceded

33.8

Huddersfield Giants

21.2

Hull

Avg Margin

-23.8

Huddersfield Giants

-2.4

Hull

Run Metres

817

Huddersfield Giants

1044

Hull

Clean Breaks

1.8

Huddersfield Giants

3.8

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Huddersfield Giants lead 4-1
Jul 2025HUD 30 - 14 HUL
Mar 2025HUD 10 - 11 HUL
Feb 2024HUD 56 - 22 HUL
Feb 2024HUD 24 - 18 HUL
Sep 2023HUD 52 - 20 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1239Overall1425
HUL
ELO difference: -187 in favour of Hull

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

896Forwards740
Best: 1042HUD +156Best: 890
798Backs767
Best: 900HUD +31Best: 878
728Halves738
Best: 728EvenBest: 738
843Hooker640
HUD +204

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
HUL
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
10.0pts
Avg Score
18.8pts
33.8pts
Avg Conceded
21.2pts
-23.8pts
Avg Margin
-2.4pts
817.4m
Run Metres
1044.4m
1.8
Clean Breaks
3.8
255.8
Tackles
267.2
9.0
Errors
9.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Hull
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Giants
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Hull
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Giants

Model Confidence

57%

Hull predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -9.7

0/4 match predictions correct