Castleford Tigers
Wakefield Trinity
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
59%
Wakefield Trinity
41%
AI Match Overview
Castleford Tigers hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Wakefield Trinity are far from out of this at 41%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Wakefield Trinity carry a 144-point ELO rating advantage (1448 vs 1304). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Castleford Tigers by 3.0 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Castleford Tigers to Win @2.98
Lost ✗
Edge
+25.8%
Line / Spread
Castleford Tigers +3 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Castleford Tigers 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R5L R6L R7L R8L R9W older → newer | 13.2 |
Wakefield Trinity | R5L R6W R7L R8W R9L | 19.8 |
Avg Conceded
19.0
Castleford Tigers
18.4
Wakefield Trinity
Avg Margin
-5.8
Castleford Tigers
1.4
Wakefield Trinity
Run Metres
893
Castleford Tigers
1106
Wakefield Trinity
Clean Breaks
2.8
Castleford Tigers
3.6
Wakefield Trinity
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +3.0