# Castleford Tigers v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 8 – 32 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity edge Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 4 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 59% / Wakefield Trinity 41% · St James' Park · Sun, 04 May, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Joshua Simm (31' Tipped ⚡), Sam Wood (58') · Wakefield Trinity: Max Jowitt (8' 1st Tipped 🎯), Caius Faatili (14'), Lachlan Walmsley (36'), Tom Johnstone (42' Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Walmsley (68'), Caius Faatili (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | 59% | Lost |
| Wakefield Trinity | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Castleford Tigers 8–32 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 10 at St James' Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Castleford Tigers as 59% favourites, tipped to win by 3, at St James' Park. Wakefield Trinity won by 24. That's about as wrong as a favourites tip gets.

The final score was 32-8, and Wakefield Trinity were up 16-4 at the break, so this wasn't some grandstand finish that flattered the margin. It was built early and never really threatened.

Max Jowitt got things moving in the 8th minute, converted his own try two minutes later, and by the 15th minute it was 0-12 after Caius Faatili crossed. Castleford Tigers got a foothold when Joshua Simm scored in the 31st, cutting it to 4-12, but Wakefield Trinity answered through Lachlan Walmsley before the half was out and it was 4-16 at the break. Tom Johnstone extended it to 4-22 early in the second half, Sam Wood got one back for Castleford Tigers at 8-22, and then Wakefield Trinity closed it out with Walmsley's second and a further Faatili try either side of the 70th minute.

The pre-match numbers explain a lot of what went wrong for the model. Wakefield Trinity's forward pack was rated 910 to Castleford Tigers' 796, and it showed up in the collision stats: 1,355 run metres to 850, and 8 line breaks to 2. That's not a marginal edge, that's a side getting go-forward at will. Castleford Tigers' advantage was supposed to sit in the backs (1084 to 742) and halves (1180 to 637), but a strong halves rating doesn't mean much if the forwards in front of them can't win the collision.

Where the read held up better was the total. The model called 40 points combined, the match delivered exactly 40. So the model wasn't blind to this being a high-scoring game, it just had the wrong side doing most of the scoring.

Discipline and ball security tell a smaller, quieter story. Castleford Tigers were actually the tidier side with ball in hand, just 7 errors to Wakefield Trinity's 10, and gave away fewer penalties too, 3 to 2. Normally that sort of edge keeps you in the contest. Here it barely mattered, because Wakefield Trinity's line-break count and metreage overwhelmed whatever Castleford Tigers were doing right without the ball.

Form lines pointed this way too, in hindsight. Wakefield Trinity came in with 2 wins from their last 5 to Castleford Tigers' 1, averaging 19.8 points scored to 13.2, and crucially running for 1,106 metres a game against Castleford Tigers' 893. Castleford Tigers had actually won their last outing, but a single LLLLW finish doesn't undo the gap in go-forward that showed up again here.

Alphr's model went 3 from 15 on the round. This one goes down as a miss on the head-to-head price and the margin, redeemed only slightly by nailing the total. Wakefield Trinity's forward dominance did the damage, Castleford Tigers' tidiness with the ball wasn't nearly enough to offset it, and the scoreline from the 8th minute onward barely wavered from the direction Jowitt set early.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 850 | Run metres | **1,355** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 19 | Tackle busts | **23** |
| 6 | Offloads | **7** |
| **7** | Errors | 10 |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 6 |
| 0/2 | Goals | 4/6 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 7 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Wakefield Trinity defied the model's 59% prediction for Castleford Tigers, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 40, within 0 points. Wakefield Trinity led 4–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 3 · Wakefield Trinity 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Castleford Tigers to win — model probability 59.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Castleford Tigers 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Castleford Tigers by 3 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Castleford Tigers are the call at 59%, but Wakefield Trinity stay live at 41%. The ratings say otherwise: Wakefield Trinity sit 144 ELO points clear, 1448 to 1304, so the model is backing Castleford Tigers against the ratings gap. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Castleford Tigers by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 40. Lean Castleford Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 13.2pts | Avg Score | 19.8pts |
| 19.0pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| -5.8pts | Avg Margin | 1.4pts |
| 893.2m | Run Metres | 1106.2m |
| 2.8 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 220.8 | Tackles | 326.0 |
| 5.2 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W | 13.2 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R5 L · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 L | 19.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 52 – 14 | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity 67% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Wakefield Trinity | 48 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity 51% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 34 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 63% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | Castleford Tigers | 26 – 22 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Wakefield Trinity | 13 – 12 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 3 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (1.11 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.78 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 9th there (1.78 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.78/g (def 6th) | 0.33/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.89/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.78/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.78/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 0.22/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.44/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 5 | 6 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 83m/g | 84m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 91.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 20 | 8 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 407m/g | 400m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11/g | 11/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.1% | 80.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 6 | 5 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 223m/g | 313m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 95.5% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.14) +79% · Wingers 1.36/g (lg 0.86) +58% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.04) +175% · Fullbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.18) +78% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.11) +73%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at St James' Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tex Hoy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.62 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.68 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/9g | 2/3g | 18% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.39 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.04 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Rowan Milnes | HB | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Taealoaloa Amone | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Judah Rimbu | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jordan Dezaria | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | George Lawler | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 2/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Brad Singleton | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/18g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Westerman | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Daniel Okoro | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Chris Atkin | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/9g | 1/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.92 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.79 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 36' 68' |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.43 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 10/14g | 4/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $22.54 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.27 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 1/3g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.02 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Caius Faatili | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 14' 70' |
| 11 | Jack Croft | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/13g | 3/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.29 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Cameron Scott | INT | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Harvey Smith | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 16 | Isaiah Vagana | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1304 · Wakefield Trinity 1448 · ELO difference: 144 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Castleford Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)