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Super League | Round 1

alphr.com.au

THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • THURSDAY 13 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

01
LEI

Leigh Leopards

❌ Upset — model favoured Wigan Warriors at 74%

AI Win Probability

74%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

74%

Leigh Leopards

26%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leigh Leopards. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 124-point ELO rating advantage (1707 vs 1583). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Leigh Leopards. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 14.4 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.12

Lost ✗

Edge

-15.5%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +14.4 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
W
W
W
W
W
34.6
Leigh Leopards
W
W
W
L
L
13.2

Avg Conceded

4.4

Wigan Warriors

18.4

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

30.2

Wigan Warriors

-5.2

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1318

Wigan Warriors

773

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

8.0

Wigan Warriors

2.8

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 4-1
Mar 2026WIG 54 - 0 LEI
Oct 2025WIG 18 - 6 LEI
Jul 2025WIG 8 - 18 LEI
May 2025WIG 36 - 28 LEI
Feb 2024WIG 38 - 0 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1707Overall1583
LEI
ELO difference: +124 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

900Forwards861
Best: 1167WIG +39Best: 1013
878Backs853
Best: 992WIG +26Best: 980
980Halves657
Best: 980WIG +323Best: 657
841Hooker652
WIG +188

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
LEI
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
34.6pts
Avg Score
13.2pts
4.4pts
Avg Conceded
18.4pts
30.2pts
Avg Margin
-5.2pts
1318.0m
Run Metres
773.4m
8.0
Clean Breaks
2.8
279.8
Tackles
234.0
8.0
Errors
6.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

74%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 14 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: +14.4

1/4 match predictions correct