St Helens
Salford Red Devils
AI Win Probability
St Helens
43%
Salford Red Devils
57%
AI Match Overview
Salford Red Devils hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though St Helens are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Salford Red Devils ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model predicts St Helens by 4.0 points with a combined total of 35.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Salford Red Devils to Win @1.77
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
St Helens +4 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Helens | W W L L L | 18.8 |
Salford Red Devils | W W L L L | 20.6 |
Avg Conceded
14.2
St Helens
25.2
Salford Red Devils
Avg Margin
4.6
St Helens
-4.6
Salford Red Devils
Run Metres
878
St Helens
748
Salford Red Devils
Clean Breaks
3.2
St Helens
4.2
Salford Red Devils
ELO–Market Disagreement
St Helens hold the ELO advantage (1507 vs 1503), but the market favours Salford Red Devils (@1.77).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Salford Red Devils predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 35 · Line: +4.0