# St Helens v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 82 – 0 Salford Red Devils

_St Helens run riot over Salford Red Devils._

Half time: 38 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 43% / Salford Red Devils 57% · The BrewDog Stadium · Sat, 15 Feb, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Morgan Knowles (4' 1st), Lewis Murphy (6'), Tristan Sailor (10'), Curtis Sironen (13'), Harry Robertson (21' Tipped ⚡), Morgan Knowles (32' 1st), Harry Robertson (37' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Feldt (41' Tipped ⚡), Jonny Lomax (44'), Tristan Sailor (48'), Tristan Sailor (53'), Tristan Sailor (64'), Mark Percival (69' Tipped ⚡), Joe Batchelor (72'), George Delaney (75') · Salford Red Devils: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | 57% | Lost |
| St Helens | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.0 predicted → 82 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:09 pm_

St Helens 82–0 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 1 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time read a lot like it: St Helens 38, Salford Red Devils 0. Most sides find a way to tighten things up after a break like that. Salford didn't get the chance to try.

St Helens simply kept going. Kyle Feldt crossed inside a minute of the restart, Jonny Lomax followed three minutes later, and by the 55th minute the total had climbed past 60. What was already a rout at the break turned into something closer to a full teardown by full time, St Helens running out winners 82-0.

The timeline tells you how little breathing room Salford ever had. Morgan Knowles opened the account in the 4th minute and had a second by the 32nd. Tristan Sailor kept turning up, four tries in all, at 10, 48, 53 and 64 minutes, spread evenly enough that Salford never had a stretch to regroup. Harry Robertson chipped in twice, and by the closing quarter St Helens were rotating scorers, Mark Percival, Joe Batchelor and George Delaney all getting on the sheet as the margin blew out.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard already made obvious. St Helens ran for 1,567 metres to Salford's 55, a gap that barely needs commentary. Fifteen line breaks to none, 75 tackle busts to Salford's solitary one. When one side is finding space that freely and the other can't lay a hand on anyone, 82 points stops looking like an outlier and starts looking inevitable.

Salford's one point of pride was discipline, giving away just a single penalty to St Helens' four, and they were tidier with the ball too, seven errors to one. None of it mattered. You can hold onto the ball all day, but if you can't get past the defensive line, it's just possession for its own sake.

What makes this one worth a second look is the pre-match picture. Salford came in rated stronger in every positional category, forwards 961 to 737, backs 1000 to 962, halves 1000 to 864, hooker 1000 to 791. On paper this was meant to be tight, maybe even a Salford night. Alphr's model gave Salford Red Devils 57% and pencilled in a St Helens win by 4 points on a combined total of 35. Reality delivered a St Helens win by 82 on a total of 82 alone.

That's about as wrong as a prediction gets, and the model went 3 from 15 on the round. Ratings and recent form only tell you so much. Salford's form line had them level with St Helens on wins over their last five, and a better average score to boot. None of that showed up when it counted. Some days the sheet says one thing and the scoreboard says another entirely, and this was one of those days, just amplified well past anything the numbers saw coming.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| **1,567** | Run metres | 55 |
| **15** | Line breaks | 0 |
| **75** | Tackle busts | 1 |
| **15** | Offloads | 0 |
| 7 | Errors | **1** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **1** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tries | 0 |
| 11/15 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 1 |
| 7 | Errors | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

St Helens defied the model's 57% prediction for Salford Red Devils, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.0 but the actual margin was 82 points. The game's 82 points came in 48 points higher than the predicted 35. St Helens led 38–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 82. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (33/100) — penalties St Helens 4 · Salford Red Devils 1.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Salford Red Devils to win — model probability 56.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Salford Red Devils 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 4 · Predicted total: 35

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Salford Red Devils are the call at 57%, but St Helens stay live at 43%.

Salford Red Devils own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has St Helens by 4.0, with the two sides combining for about 35. Lean Salford Red Devils, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.8pts | Avg Score | 20.6pts |
| 14.2pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| 4.6pts | Avg Margin | -4.6pts |
| 877.6m | Run Metres | 748.0m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 267.0 | Tackles | 228.4 |
| 8.0 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R24 W · R25 L · R26 W · R27 L · L | 18.8 |
| Salford Red Devils | R24 L · R25 W · R26 W · R27 L · L | 20.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R16 | St Helens | 58 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2025 | R14 | Salford Red Devils | 4 – 46 | St Helens |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 20 – 24 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R21 | St Helens | 17 – 16 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R15 | Salford Red Devils | 20 – 18 | St Helens |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 9th there (1.46 conceded/game). Key man: Welsby, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (0.75 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 7th there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Cross, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 7th) | 0.75/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.79/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.86/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.86/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.46/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.61/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 6th) | 0.79/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 7 | 14 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 145m/g | 138m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 86.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 40 · 36 | 32 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 273m/g | 363m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79% | 85% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 7 | 18 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 283m/g | 285m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.45/g (lg 0.28) +61% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39% · Wingers 1.25/g (lg 0.93) +34%
**Who scores on St Helens** — 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.28) -14% · Wingers 0.77/g (lg 0.93) -17% · Five-Eighths 0.14/g (lg 0.18) -22%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 33/53g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.71 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.17 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.33 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.58 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.31 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 37' |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | no games | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 9/19g | 16/41g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | no games | 12/10g (2·1·1·3·1·4·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/1g | 53% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 6 | Tristan Sailor | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 10' 48' 53' 64' |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 12/53g | 24% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/19g | 9/45g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | no games | 4/10g (3·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 5/16g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/45g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 5/27g | 16% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 12 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 14/40g | 20% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 4' 32' |
| 14 | James Bell | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/32g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.07 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Matt Whitley | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 3/12g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Jake Wingfield | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | George Delaney | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/21g | 4% | — | 🏉 75' |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ethan Fitzgerald | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.86 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.32 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Joshua Wagstaffe | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Lucas Coan | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Sean Murray | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.86 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.32 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jack Gatcliffe | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Kai Morgan | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Leunbou wells | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Finley Yates | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Harrison Hope | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | James Shields | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | John Hutchings | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Logan Lagar | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Bullock | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Ben Hellewell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Nathan Connell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1507 · Salford Red Devils 1503 · ELO difference: 4 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Salford Red Devils predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 35 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:09 UTC (latest tip update)