Skip to main content

Super League | Round 1

alphr.com.au

THE BREWDOG STADIUM • SATURDAY 15 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
STH

St Helens

820
SAL

Salford Red Devils

❌ Upset — model favoured Salford Red Devils at 57%

AI Win Probability

57%Salford Red DevilsFavourite

St Helens

43%

Salford Red Devils

57%

AI Match Overview

Salford Red Devils hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though St Helens are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Salford Red Devils ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model predicts St Helens by 4.0 points with a combined total of 35.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Salford Red Devils to Win @1.77

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

St Helens +4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
W
W
L
L
L
18.8
Salford Red Devils
W
W
L
L
L
20.6

Avg Conceded

14.2

St Helens

25.2

Salford Red Devils

Avg Margin

4.6

St Helens

-4.6

Salford Red Devils

Run Metres

878

St Helens

748

Salford Red Devils

Clean Breaks

3.2

St Helens

4.2

Salford Red Devils

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 3-2
Jun 2025STH 58 - 0 SAL
Jun 2025STH 46 - 4 SAL
Feb 2024STH 20 - 24 SAL
Aug 2024STH 17 - 16 SAL
Jun 2024STH 18 - 20 SAL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

St Helens hold the ELO advantage (1507 vs 1503), but the market favours Salford Red Devils (@1.77).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1507Overall1503
SAL
ELO difference: +4 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

737Forwards961
Best: 830SAL +225Best: 1000
962Backs1000
Best: 1040SAL +38Best: 1000
864Halves1000
Best: 864SAL +136Best: 1000
791Hooker1000
SAL +209

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
SAL
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
18.8pts
Avg Score
20.6pts
14.2pts
Avg Conceded
25.2pts
4.6pts
Avg Margin
-4.6pts
877.6m
Run Metres
748.0m
3.2
Clean Breaks
4.2
267.0
Tackles
228.4
8.0
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Devils
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

57%

Salford Red Devils predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 35 · Line: +4.0

1/4 match predictions correct