# Leeds Rhinos v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 12 – 14 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity see off Leeds Rhinos in a tight one._

Half time: 6 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 70% / Wakefield Trinity 30% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sat, 15 Feb, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Harry Newman (38' Tipped ⚡), Sam Lisone (79') · Wakefield Trinity: Max Jowitt (21' 1st), Max Jowitt (25' 1st), Mason Lino (31')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 70% | Lost |
| Wakefield Trinity | 30% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.3 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:09 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 12–14 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 1 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen minutes did it. Between the 21st and the 31st, Wakefield Trinity put three tries on the board and turned a contest into a rescue mission for Leeds Rhinos.

Max Jowitt started it in the 21st minute, converted his own try, then scored again in the 25th to make it 0-10. Mason Lino followed up in the 31st for 0-14, and by the time Leeds Rhinos got their first points on the board through Harry Newman in the 38th, the damage was already done. Jake Connor's conversion made it 6-14 heading into the sheds, and that's exactly the scoreline the half-time break confirmed.

Leeds Rhinos spent the rest of the night chipping away. Sam Lisone crashed over in the 79th minute, Connor slotted the conversion, and it finished 12-14. Wakefield Trinity held on by two points, the same margin that decided the whole contest despite Leeds Rhinos never actually leading.

The stat sheet tells you how Leeds Rhinos made it close without making it count. They ran for 1,068 metres to Wakefield Trinity's 1,046, busted 36 tackles to 11, and offloaded nine times to four. All the hallmarks of the side doing more with the ball. Problem is, none of that shows up on the scoreboard if you can't finish, and Leeds Rhinos managed just one line break all match to Wakefield Trinity's three. Wakefield Trinity were also cleaner when it counted, coughing up the ball seven times to nine, and their discipline going forward, six penalties conceded to three, barely mattered because the tries were already banked.

That's the story of the positional mismatch playing out sideways. Leeds Rhinos came in rated stronger in the halves, 942 to 864, and at hooker, 903 to 767, and it showed in the volume of metres and busts. But Wakefield Trinity had the edge up front, 946 to 891 in forwards, and out wide, 802 to 737, and when it mattered in that first-half burst, it was Wakefield Trinity's execution that showed up on the board, not Leeds Rhinos' territory.

Form lines make the result harder to explain, not easier. Leeds Rhinos arrived averaging 24.6 points a game across their last five, with three wins in that stretch. Wakefield Trinity hadn't won any of theirs, averaging just 11.4 points and shipping 29.2 a game. On paper this was Leeds Rhinos by 7.3, a 70 per cent lean backed by an ELO gap of 1511 to 1404. None of it accounted for a fourteen-minute window where Wakefield Trinity scored three tries and never had to find another one.

Leeds Rhinos did what the underlying numbers say they should do: they ran harder, offloaded more, busted more tackles. They just couldn't turn any of it into points until it was too late to matter. Wakefield Trinity took their three chances in the first half and spent the rest of the match defending a lead built almost entirely in that one passage.

For Alphr's model, this one lands in the miss column. The margin call wasn't far off, 7.3 points predicted against a 2-point actual result, but the wrong side won. Call it 1 from 15 on the night, and a reminder that form guides and forward-pack ratings don't always survive a quarter-hour where the other side simply shows up.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| **1,068** | Run metres | 1,046 |
| 1 | Line breaks | **3** |
| **36** | Tackle busts | 11 |
| **9** | Offloads | 4 |
| 9 | Errors | **7** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2/2 | Goals | 1/3 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 9 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Wakefield Trinity defied the model's 70% prediction for Leeds Rhinos, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 7.3 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 1/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (46/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 3 · Wakefield Trinity 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 70.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 7 · Predicted total: 36

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 70% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 107 ELO points clear, 1511 to 1404. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Wakefield Trinity.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 7.3, with the two sides combining for about 36. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 24.6pts | Avg Score | 11.4pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| 5.4pts | Avg Margin | -17.8pts |
| 1052.0m | Run Metres | 580.4m |
| 4.0 | Clean Breaks | 1.6 |
| 268.4 | Tackles | 174.6 |
| 8.6 | Errors | 7.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 L | 24.6 |
| Wakefield Trinity | 0W–5L | 11.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Wakefield Trinity | 22 – 24 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 74% ✓ |
| 2026 | R10 | Leeds Rhinos | 40 – 22 | Wakefield Trinity | Leeds Rhinos 78% ✓ |
| 2025 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 15 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R13 | Leeds Rhinos | 22 – 18 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R15 | Wakefield Trinity | 24 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.89/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) | — |
| Middle | 0.96/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.07/g (def 8th) | — |
| Right | 0.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 7th) | — |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.22) +32% · Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.05) +20% · Wingers 1.09/g (lg 0.93) +17%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.05) +0% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.22) -18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Connor | FB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | no games | 2/5g (0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.12 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.21 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 4/11g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.63 AI 21% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | no games | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 12/15g | 7/8g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.22 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.85 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | no games | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 1/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.62 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | no games | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/13g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.71 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $29.33 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Matt Frawley | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/6g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.82 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Cam Smith | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Alfie Edgell | INT | no games | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·4·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/13g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 8% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 16 | Morgan Gannon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Tom Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 21' 25' |
| 2 | Matty Russell | WG | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 3 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.42 AI 22% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $34.32 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | no games | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 13/14g | 0/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.81 AI 27% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | no games | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/20g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Croft | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Doyle | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Olly Russell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Isaiah Vagana | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1511 · Wakefield Trinity 1404 · ELO difference: 107 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 36 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:09 UTC (latest tip update)