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Super League | Round 1

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AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • SATURDAY 15 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

1214
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

❌ Upset — model favoured Leeds Rhinos at 70%

AI Win Probability

70%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

70%

Wakefield Trinity

30%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wakefield Trinity. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. Leeds Rhinos carry a 107-point ELO rating advantage (1511 vs 1404). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Wakefield Trinity. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 7.3 points with a combined total of 36.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.28

Lost ✗

Edge

-8.0%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +7.3 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
W
W
W
L
L
24.6
Wakefield Trinity
L
L
L
L
L
11.4

Avg Conceded

19.2

Leeds Rhinos

29.2

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

5.4

Leeds Rhinos

-17.8

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

1052

Leeds Rhinos

580

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

4.0

Leeds Rhinos

1.6

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2
May 2026LEE 40 - 22 WAK
Jul 2025LEE 14 - 15 WAK
Jun 2025LEE 22 - 18 WAK
Jun 2023LEE 14 - 24 WAK
Mar 2023LEE 26 - 0 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1511Overall1404
WAK
ELO difference: +107 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

891Forwards946
Best: 1000WAK +55Best: 1000
737Backs802
Best: 785WAK +65Best: 884
942Halves864
Best: 942LEE +78Best: 864
903Hooker767
LEE +137

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
WAK
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
24.6pts
Avg Score
11.4pts
19.2pts
Avg Conceded
29.2pts
5.4pts
Avg Margin
-17.8pts
1052.0m
Run Metres
580.4m
4.0
Clean Breaks
1.6
268.4
Tackles
174.6
8.6
Errors
7.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

70%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 36 · Line: +7.3

1/4 match predictions correct