Hull KR
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Hull KR
88%
Castleford Tigers
12%
AI Match Overview
Hull KR are clear favourites here at 88%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Hull KR carry a 310-point ELO rating advantage (1672 vs 1362). Recent form favours Hull KR with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 16.3 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hull KR to Win @1.05
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.5%
Line / Spread
Hull KR +16.3 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Hull KR 13-24 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hull KR | W W W L L | 16.4 |
Castleford Tigers | W L L L L | 14.2 |
Avg Conceded
11.4
Hull KR
31.2
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
5.0
Hull KR
-17.0
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1158
Hull KR
579
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
2.4
Hull KR
1.0
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
88%
Hull KR predicted to win by 16 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +16.3