# Hull KR v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 19 – 18 Castleford Tigers

_Hull KR hit back to spring past Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 8 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 88% / Castleford Tigers 12% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Fri, 14 Feb, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Joe Burgess (14' 1st), Peta Hiku (37' Tipped ⚡), Joe Burgess (63' 1st), Joe Burgess (70' 1st) · Castleford Tigers: Joshua Simm (21' Tipped ⚡), Fletcher Rooney (28'), Zac Cini (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 88% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 16.3 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:09 pm_

Hull KR 19–18 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 1 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers led for most of the night and still finished on the wrong side of the ladder. Hull KR won it 19-18 at Sewell Group Craven Park, but for long stretches this looked like a Castleford story, not a Hull KR one.

Joe Burgess got Hull KR off the mark in the 14th minute, and it stayed a one-score game for all of seven minutes. Then Castleford took over. Joshua Simm levelled it at 4-4, Fletcher Rooney put the Tigers in front five minutes later, and by the 32nd minute a Tex Hoy penalty goal had the visitors up 4-12. Hull KR clawed one back through Peta Hiku just before the break, but Castleford still led 12-8 at half-time. On the stats sheet at that point, that scoreline made sense.

What didn't make sense, given the shape of the first half, was what came after it. Hull KR were held scoreless for 26 minutes either side of the break, and then Joe Burgess did what he'd already done once, and did it twice more. His second try, in the 63rd minute, brought it level at 12-12. Rhyse Martin's conversion nudged Hull KR in front for the first time since the 14th minute, and Burgess completed his hat-trick in the 70th to make it 18-12. Castleford weren't done: Zac Cini scored in the 72nd and Hoy's conversion made it 18-18 with the clock almost gone. Hull KR held on by the single point that had eluded them all night.

The stat that explains the turnaround sits right there in the run metres: Hull KR finished with 1,049 to Castleford's 607, a gap that simply wasn't showing up on the scoreboard in the first half. Six line breaks to three, 24 tackle busts to 23, six offloads to four. Hull KR were doing the heavy work all match, it just took until the second half to convert that into points.

Castleford's route to a 12-point lead was built on discipline with the ball, not go-forward. Three errors to Hull KR's ten is a heavy imbalance, and it's the kind of number that usually wins you a game like this, not loses it. It didn't, because Hull KR's line-break count kept giving them second and third chances even after the mistakes.

The positional read pre-match had Castleford stronger in the halves, 1000 to 813, and in the backs, 889 to 706, while Hull KR held the edge up front, 942 to 910. Recent form leaned heavily Hull KR's way too, a 3-2 last-five record against Castleford's 1-4, and an average concession of just 11.4 points against Castleford's 31.2. Sunday's second half looked like that form line finally showing up, after a first half that looked like anything but.

Alphr's model backed Hull KR at 88 percent and got the winner right. It called the total at 40, three off the actual 37. The margin was where it fell over, tipping Hull KR by 16.3 in a game that came down to one point. Three from fifteen on the night. Close on the shape, wrong on the size of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,049** | Run metres | 607 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **24** | Tackle busts | 23 |
| **6** | Offloads | 4 |
| 10 | Errors | **3** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 1/4 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 10 | Errors | 3 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.3 but the actual margin was 1 points. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 37, within 3 points. Hull KR trailed 8–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 19–18. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (28/100) — penalties Hull KR 3 · Castleford Tigers 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 87.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 16 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 88% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 310 ELO points clear, 1672 to 1362. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 16.3, with the two sides combining for about 40. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 16.4pts | Avg Score | 14.2pts |
| 11.4pts | Avg Conceded | 31.2pts |
| 5.0pts | Avg Margin | -17.0pts |
| 1157.6m | Run Metres | 579.4m |
| 2.4 | Clean Breaks | 1.0 |
| 296.4 | Tackles | 151.2 |
| 8.0 | Errors | 6.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R25 L · R26 W · R27 W · W · L | 16.4 |
| Castleford Tigers | R23 L · R24 W · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L | 14.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 44 | Hull KR | Hull KR 52% ✓ |
| 2026 | R10 | Hull KR | 50 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | Hull KR 82% ✓ |
| 2025 | R21 | Hull KR | 36 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R15 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 48 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Hull KR | 36 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.07 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 10th there (1.78 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (0.85 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 6th there (0.62 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 14 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.62/g (def 6th) | 0.85/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.07/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.38/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.74/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.78/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.24/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.52/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.52/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 7 | 12 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 169m/g | 81m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 61 · 28 | 36 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 533m/g | 370m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.1/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.1% | 82% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 7 | 5 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 349m/g | 194m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.05) +100% · 2nd Rows 0.41/g (lg 0.28) +46% · Centres 0.6/g (lg 0.42) +43%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — Wingers 0.81/g (lg 0.93) -13% · 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.28) -14% · Props 0.11/g (lg 0.13) -15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niall Evalds | FB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/13g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.62 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/11g | 1/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.19 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | no games | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 8/13g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.88 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 2/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | no games | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·4·1·0·1·1·0) | 11/13g | 8/10g | 32% | — | 🏉 14' 63' 70' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | no games | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 17/34g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.41 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.07 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | no games | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/14g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/21g | 22% | — | — |
| 9 | Michael McIlorum | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | no games | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1) | 6/13g | 1/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.02 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.42 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 10/24g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.73 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 3/35g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 5/37g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Dean Hadley | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 1/30g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jai Whitbread | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/14g | 32% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Rooney | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 28' |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 3/12g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Zac Cini | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 72' |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.99 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.24 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Tex Hoy | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Westerman | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Judah Rimbu | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jeremaiha SIMBIKEN | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Joshua Hodson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Liam Horne | LK | no games | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Muizz Mustapha | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Sylvester Namo | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Ben Davies | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1672 · Castleford Tigers 1362 · ELO difference: 310 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 88%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 16 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:09 UTC (latest tip update)