Skip to main content

Super League | Round 1

alphr.com.au

JOHN SMITH'S STADIUM • SUNDAY 16 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

1220
WAR

Warrington Wolves

❌ Upset — model favoured Huddersfield Giants at 53%

AI Win Probability

53%Huddersfield GiantsFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

53%

Warrington Wolves

47%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Huddersfield Giants a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Warrington Wolves are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate, but Huddersfield Giants counter with Backline Quality and Halves Control which tips the scales. Warrington Wolves carry a 214-point ELO rating advantage (1630 vs 1415). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 4.2 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Huddersfield Giants to Win @4.22

Lost ✗

Edge

+29.6%

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves -4.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
W
W
L
L
L
15.2
Warrington Wolves
W
W
W
W
L
33.4

Avg Conceded

34.0

Huddersfield Giants

6.8

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

-18.8

Huddersfield Giants

26.6

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

515

Huddersfield Giants

870

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

1.8

Huddersfield Giants

6.0

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 3-2
May 2026HUD 4 - 34 WAR
Aug 2025HUD 23 - 10 WAR
Jun 2025HUD 24 - 16 WAR
Sep 2024HUD 0 - 66 WAR
Jun 2024HUD 0 - 48 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1415Overall1630
WAR
ELO difference: -214 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

871Forwards880
Best: 1058EvenBest: 1022
1077Backs1004
Best: 1128HUD +73Best: 1121
1091Halves971
Best: 1091HUD +120Best: 971
1000Hooker901
HUD +99

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
WAR
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
15.2pts
Avg Score
33.4pts
34.0pts
Avg Conceded
6.8pts
-18.8pts
Avg Margin
26.6pts
514.8m
Run Metres
870.0m
1.8
Clean Breaks
6.0
173.4
Tackles
184.6
5.2
Errors
5.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Giants
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Wolves

Model Confidence

53%

Huddersfield Giants predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -4.2

2/4 match predictions correct