# Catalans Dragons v Hull FC — Super League Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 4 – 24 Hull FC

_Hull FC wear down Catalans Dragons._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 71% / Hull FC 29% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Fri, 14 Feb, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Arthur Mourgue (44') · Hull FC: Jordan Lane (25' 1st), Cade Cust (36'), Tom Briscoe (39'), Cade Cust (62')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 71% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 29% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 12.1 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:09 pm_

Catalans Dragons 4–24 Hull FC in Super League Round 1 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC ran past Catalans Dragons 24–4 at Stade Gilbert Brutus.

Jordan Lane opened the scoring; Catalans Dragons crossed through Arthur Mourgue; Hull FC scored through Jordan Lane, Cade Cust (2) and Tom Briscoe.

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 71% prediction for Catalans Dragons, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.1 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 28 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 0/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 70.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons — model probability 70.7% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — model probability 70.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 12 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Catalans Dragons here: 71% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Catalans Dragons sit 220 ELO points clear, 1486 to 1266. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Hull FC.

Catalans Dragons own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 12.1, with the two sides combining for about 45. Catalans Dragons to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 14.4pts | Avg Score | 7.6pts |
| 16.6pts | Avg Conceded | 42.2pts |
| -2.2pts | Avg Margin | -34.6pts |
| 748.2m | Run Metres | 636.6m |
| 1.8 | Clean Breaks | 1.0 |
| 203.8 | Tackles | 231.2 |
| 6.0 | Errors | 7.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R23 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 W · R27 W | 14.4 |
| Hull FC | R23 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L | 7.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull FC lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 27 | Hull FC | Catalans Dragons 61% ✗ |
| 2026 | R6 | Hull FC | 24 – 20 | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC 54% ✓ |
| 2025 | R27 | Hull FC | 22 – 26 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R13 | Catalans Dragons | 0 – 34 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Hull FC | 4 – 24 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (0.63 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 12th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Davies, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.59 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 3rd there (0.44 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.44/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.59/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.81/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 0.37/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.96/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.48/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.48/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 8 | 2 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 47m/g | 54m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.6/g | 1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 85.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 35 · 25 | 25 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 394m/g | 281m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.4/g | 7.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.5% | 80.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 11 | 7 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 200m/g | 305m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.9% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Five-Eighths 0.22/g (lg 0.18) +22%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.18) +44% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/9g | 15/44g | 30% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | no games | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·2) | 7/9g | 2/4g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.34 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.58 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Arthur Romano | CE | no games | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 2/5g | 8/30g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Bayley Sironen | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.09 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.16 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.36 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Keary | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/14g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Chris Satae | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/14g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Ben Garcia | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/26g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Tariq Sims | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Elliott Whitehead | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Alrix Da Costa | INT | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/30g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Tevita Pangai Junior | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Julian Bousquet | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 6/41g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.32 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Paul Seguier | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Rapana | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 33% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zak Hardaker | CE | no games | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/19g | 0/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Tom Briscoe | CE | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/15g | 3/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 35% | — | — |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Cade Cust | HB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 36' 62' |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 6% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Yusuf Aydin | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Lane | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/4g | 4% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Ligi Sao | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Denive Balmforth | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Fash | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1486 · Hull FC 1266 · ELO difference: 220 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:09 UTC (latest tip update)