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Super League | Round 1

alphr.com.au

STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • FRIDAY 14 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

424
HUL

Hull

❌ Upset — model favoured Catalans Dragons at 71%

AI Win Probability

71%Catalans DragonsFavourite

Catalans Dragons

71%

Hull

29%

AI Match Overview

Catalans Dragons are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Catalans Dragons ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Catalans Dragons carry a 220-point ELO rating advantage (1486 vs 1266). Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Hull. The margin model predicts Catalans Dragons by 12.1 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Catalans Dragons to Win @1.28

Lost ✗

Edge

-7.4%

Line / Spread

Catalans Dragons +12.1 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Catalans Dragons 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
W
W
L
L
L
14.4
Hull
L
L
L
L
L
7.6

Avg Conceded

16.6

Catalans Dragons

42.2

Hull

Avg Margin

-2.2

Catalans Dragons

-34.6

Hull

Run Metres

748

Catalans Dragons

637

Hull

Clean Breaks

1.8

Catalans Dragons

1.0

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 3-2
Apr 2026CAT 20 - 24 HUL
Sep 2025CAT 26 - 22 HUL
Jun 2025CAT 0 - 34 HUL
Sep 2024CAT 24 - 4 HUL
Jul 2024CAT 24 - 16 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1486Overall1266
HUL
ELO difference: +220 in favour of Catalans Dragons

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

955Forwards801
Best: 1081CAT +155Best: 1055
1053Backs781
Best: 1094CAT +272Best: 848
826Halves710
Best: 826CAT +116Best: 710
1000Hooker664
CAT +336

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
HUL
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
14.4pts
Avg Score
7.6pts
16.6pts
Avg Conceded
42.2pts
-2.2pts
Avg Margin
-34.6pts
748.2m
Run Metres
636.6m
1.8
Clean Breaks
1.0
203.8
Tackles
231.2
6.0
Errors
7.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Dragons
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dragons
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Dragons
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

71%

Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +12.1

0/4 match predictions correct