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Super League | Round 25

alphr.com.au

HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • SATURDAY 6 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

1234
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 78%

AI Win Probability

78%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Warrington Wolves

22%

Leigh Leopards

78%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warrington Wolves. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 274-point ELO rating advantage (1631 vs 1357). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Warrington Wolves. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 6.0 points with a combined total of 37.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.32

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards -6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R20L
R21L
R22W
R23L
R24L

older → newer

17.2
Leigh Leopards
R20W
R21L
R22L
R23W
R24W
26.0

Avg Conceded

22.8

Warrington Wolves

13.6

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

-5.6

Warrington Wolves

12.4

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

835

Warrington Wolves

1266

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

1.8

Warrington Wolves

5.6

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 3-2
Apr 2026WAR 42 - 6 LEI
Jul 2025WAR 16 - 20 LEI
Apr 2025WAR 14 - 18 LEI
Feb 2024WAR 16 - 14 LEI
Aug 2024WAR 12 - 16 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1357Overall1631
LEI
ELO difference: -274 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

833Forwards846
Best: 1097LEI +12Best: 1224
768Backs1104
Best: 879LEI +337Best: 1315
683Halves1399
Best: 683LEI +716Best: 1399
784Hooker600
WAR +184

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
LEI
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
17.2pts
Avg Score
26.0pts
22.8pts
Avg Conceded
13.6pts
-5.6pts
Avg Margin
12.4pts
835.0m
Run Metres
1266.4m
1.8
Clean Breaks
5.6
241.6
Tackles
294.8
9.2
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

78%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 37 · Line: -6.0

2/4 match predictions correct