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Super League | Round 25

alphr.com.au

THE BREWDOG STADIUM • FRIDAY 5 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
STH

St Helens

418
WIG

Wigan Warriors

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 69%

AI Win Probability

69%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

St Helens

31%

Wigan Warriors

69%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Helens. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 38-point ELO rating advantage (1718 vs 1680). The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 6.6 points with a combined total of 38.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.68

Winner ✓

Edge

+9.6%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -6.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R20W
R21W
R22W
R23W
R24L

older → newer

30.0
Wigan Warriors
R20W
R21W
R22L
R23W
R24W
28.4

Avg Conceded

6.0

St Helens

10.4

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

24.0

St Helens

18.0

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1336

St Helens

1159

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

5.2

St Helens

5.0

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
Apr 2026STH 34 - 24 WIG
Apr 2025STH 14 - 24 WIG
Feb 2024STH 12 - 4 WIG
Aug 2024STH 0 - 20 WIG
Jul 2024STH 12 - 16 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1680Overall1718
WIG
ELO difference: -38 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

814Forwards903
Best: 1017WIG +90Best: 1110
967Backs1158
Best: 1126WIG +191Best: 1460
837Halves933
Best: 837WIG +97Best: 933
796Hooker600
STH +196

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
WIG
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
30.0pts
Avg Score
28.4pts
6.0pts
Avg Conceded
10.4pts
24.0pts
Avg Margin
18.0pts
1336.4m
Run Metres
1158.6m
5.2
Clean Breaks
5.0
260.2
Tackles
283.6
10.8
Errors
8.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

69%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: -6.6

3/4 match predictions correct