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Super League | Round 25

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SALFORD COMMUNITY STADIUM • THURSDAY 4 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
SAL

Salford Red Devils

1617
CAT

Catalans Dragons

❌ Upset — model favoured Salford Red Devils at 69%

AI Win Probability

69%Salford Red DevilsFavourite

Salford Red Devils

69%

Catalans Dragons

31%

AI Match Overview

Salford Red Devils are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Catalans Dragons carry a 126-point ELO rating advantage (1314 vs 1187).

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Salford Red Devils to Win @2.70

Lost ✗

Edge

+32.1%

Line / Spread

Salford Red Devils +0.9 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Salford Red Devils Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Salford Red Devils
R20L
R21L
R22L
R23L
R24W

older → newer

9.8
Catalans Dragons
R20L
R21L
R22L
R23W
R24L
17.6

Avg Conceded

50.4

Salford Red Devils

24.0

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

-40.6

Salford Red Devils

-6.4

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

392

Salford Red Devils

795

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

1.2

Salford Red Devils

3.0

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 4-1
Apr 2025SAL 10 - 38 CAT
Sep 2024SAL 27 - 12 CAT
Jul 2024SAL 0 - 20 CAT
Sep 2023SAL 8 - 19 CAT
Jul 2023SAL 0 - 42 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SAL
1187Overall1314
CAT
ELO difference: -126 in favour of Catalans Dragons

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

985Forwards848
Best: 1282SAL +137Best: 1008
1097Backs941
Best: 1162SAL +157Best: 1029
1021Halves652
Best: 1021SAL +369Best: 652
1000Hooker669
SAL +331

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SAL
Stat
CAT
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
9.8pts
Avg Score
17.6pts
50.4pts
Avg Conceded
24.0pts
-40.6pts
Avg Margin
-6.4pts
392.2m
Run Metres
795.4m
1.2
Clean Breaks
3.0
157.4
Tackles
221.2
3.0
Errors
7.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Dragons
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Devils
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

69%

Salford Red Devils predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +0.9

1/4 match predictions correct