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Super League | Round 25

alphr.com.au

VS
HUL
Hull
SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • SUNDAY 7 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

184
HUL

Hull

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 76%

AI Win Probability

76%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

76%

Hull

24%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. Hull KR carry a 271-point ELO rating advantage (1746 vs 1475). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hull. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 9.2 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.03

Winner ✓

Edge

-20.7%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +9.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R20W
R21W
R22W
R23L
R24W

older → newer

27.6
Hull
R20L
R21W
R22W
R23L
R24L
24.4

Avg Conceded

12.0

Hull KR

19.6

Hull

Avg Margin

15.6

Hull KR

4.8

Hull

Run Metres

1353

Hull KR

1164

Hull

Clean Breaks

6.4

Hull KR

5.4

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 5-0
Apr 2026HKR 24 - 6 HUL
Apr 2025HKR 28 - 14 HUL
Feb 2024HKR 34 - 10 HUL
Jul 2024HKR 24 - 10 HUL
Mar 2024HKR 22 - 0 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1746Overall1475
HUL
ELO difference: +271 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

802Forwards888
Best: 1101HUL +86Best: 1143
682Backs729
Best: 736HUL +48Best: 816
931Halves600
Best: 931HKR +331Best: 600
889Hooker607
HKR +283

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
HUL
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
27.6pts
Avg Score
24.4pts
12.0pts
Avg Conceded
19.6pts
15.6pts
Avg Margin
4.8pts
1353.0m
Run Metres
1164.2m
6.4
Clean Breaks
5.4
293.4
Tackles
250.4
9.2
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

76%

Hull KR predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +9.2

2/4 match predictions correct