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Super League | Round 25

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ACCU STADIUM • THURSDAY 4 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

026
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 71%

AI Win Probability

71%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

29%

Leeds Rhinos

71%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Huddersfield Giants. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leeds Rhinos carry a 401-point ELO rating advantage (1735 vs 1334). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 10.3 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.06

Winner ✓

Edge

-23.5%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos -10.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R20W
R21W
R22L
R23W
R24L

older → newer

15.4
Leeds Rhinos
R20L
R21W
R22W
R23W
R24W
32.4

Avg Conceded

26.0

Huddersfield Giants

8.2

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

-10.6

Huddersfield Giants

24.2

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

826

Huddersfield Giants

1227

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

1.8

Huddersfield Giants

4.6

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1
May 2026HUD 0 - 52 LEE
Apr 2026HUD 22 - 56 LEE
Apr 2025HUD 6 - 28 LEE
Feb 2024HUD 30 - 24 LEE
Jul 2024HUD 6 - 34 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1334Overall1735
LEE
ELO difference: -401 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

801Forwards915
Best: 1003LEE +113Best: 1238
896Backs882
Best: 1004HUD +14Best: 1050
800Halves1252
Best: 800LEE +452Best: 1252
729Hooker600
HUD +129

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
LEE
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
15.4pts
Avg Score
32.4pts
26.0pts
Avg Conceded
8.2pts
-10.6pts
Avg Margin
24.2pts
826.0m
Run Metres
1226.6m
1.8
Clean Breaks
4.6
239.2
Tackles
283.4
5.8
Errors
8.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Giants
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

71%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -10.3

2/4 match predictions correct