Castleford Tigers
Wakefield Trinity
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
45%
Wakefield Trinity
55%
AI Match Overview
Wakefield Trinity hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Castleford Tigers are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wakefield Trinity carry a 342-point ELO rating advantage (1545 vs 1203). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 7.5 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.12
Lost ✗
Edge
-34.1%
Line / Spread
Wakefield Trinity -7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R20L R21L R22L R23L R24L older → newer | 4.4 |
Wakefield Trinity | R20W R21L R22W R23L R24W | 23.4 |
Avg Conceded
44.8
Castleford Tigers
18.8
Wakefield Trinity
Avg Margin
-40.4
Castleford Tigers
4.6
Wakefield Trinity
Run Metres
592
Castleford Tigers
843
Wakefield Trinity
Clean Breaks
0.8
Castleford Tigers
3.2
Wakefield Trinity
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -7.5