Skip to main content

Super League | Round 27

alphr.com.au

THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 19 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

226
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 68%

AI Win Probability

68%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

68%

Leeds Rhinos

32%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leeds Rhinos. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Wigan Warriors carry a 59-point ELO rating advantage (1752 vs 1694). The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 3.4 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.13

Winner ✓

Edge

-20.4%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +3.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R22L
R23W
R24W
R25W
R26W

older → newer

34.0
Leeds Rhinos
R22W
R23W
R24W
R25W
R26L
32.0

Avg Conceded

5.2

Wigan Warriors

5.6

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

28.8

Wigan Warriors

26.4

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

1206

Wigan Warriors

1320

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

5.8

Wigan Warriors

5.0

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
May 2026WIG 24 - 4 LEE
Apr 2025WIG 10 - 12 LEE
Sep 2024WIG 38 - 0 LEE
Aug 2024WIG 4 - 30 LEE
Sep 2023WIG 50 - 0 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1752Overall1694
LEE
ELO difference: +59 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

814Forwards810
Best: 1046EvenBest: 1021
1073Backs720
Best: 1382WIG +354Best: 778
958Halves939
Best: 958WIG +18Best: 939
600Hooker946
LEE +346

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
LEE
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
34.0pts
Avg Score
32.0pts
5.2pts
Avg Conceded
5.6pts
28.8pts
Avg Margin
26.4pts
1206.2m
Run Metres
1319.6m
5.8
Clean Breaks
5.0
276.6
Tackles
259.2
8.2
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

68%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +3.4

2/4 match predictions correct