St Helens
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
St Helens
82%
Castleford Tigers
18%
AI Match Overview
St Helens are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees St Helens ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 380-point ELO rating advantage (1616 vs 1236). Recent form favours St Helens with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts St Helens by 14.1 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Helens to Win @1.07
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.5%
Line / Spread
St Helens +14.1 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens 13-24 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Helens | R22W R23W R24L R25L R26L older → newer | 18.0 |
Castleford Tigers | R22L R23L R24L R25W R26L | 9.6 |
Avg Conceded
14.4
St Helens
46.4
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
3.6
St Helens
-36.8
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1218
St Helens
563
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
3.2
St Helens
1.6
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
82%
St Helens predicted to win by 14 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +14.1