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Super League | Round 27

alphr.com.au

SALFORD COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 19 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
SAL

Salford Red Devils

1652
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

✅ Model correct — backed Wakefield Trinity at 67%

AI Win Probability

67%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Salford Red Devils

33%

Wakefield Trinity

67%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. The model sees Wakefield Trinity ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wakefield Trinity carry a 402-point ELO rating advantage (1557 vs 1155). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 9.3 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.10

Winner ✓

Edge

-23.7%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity -9.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Salford Red Devils
R22L
R23L
R24W
R25L
R26L

older → newer

11.0
Wakefield Trinity
R22W
R23L
R24W
R25L
R26W
29.6

Avg Conceded

27.4

Salford Red Devils

16.8

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

-16.4

Salford Red Devils

12.8

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

456

Salford Red Devils

902

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

1.2

Salford Red Devils

3.8

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2
Aug 2025SAL 0 - 48 WAK
May 2025SAL 10 - 72 WAK
Aug 2023SAL 20 - 0 WAK
Jul 2023SAL 6 - 32 WAK
Apr 2023SAL 14 - 13 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SAL
1155Overall1557
WAK
ELO difference: -402 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

931Forwards956
Best: 1122WAK +25Best: 1318
859Backs966
Best: 1000WAK +107Best: 1168
989Halves941
Best: 989SAL +49Best: 941
1000Hooker619
SAL +381

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SAL
Stat
WAK
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
11.0pts
Avg Score
29.6pts
27.4pts
Avg Conceded
16.8pts
-16.4pts
Avg Margin
12.8pts
456.2m
Run Metres
902.2m
1.2
Clean Breaks
3.8
193.2
Tackles
237.0
3.6
Errors
7.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Trinity
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%
Trinity

Model Confidence

67%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: -9.3

3/4 match predictions correct