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Super League | Round 27

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • THURSDAY 18 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

2226
CAT

Catalans Dragons

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull at 78%

AI Win Probability

78%HullFavourite

Hull

78%

Catalans Dragons

22%

AI Match Overview

Hull are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. The model sees Hull ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull carry a 117-point ELO rating advantage (1493 vs 1376). Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hull. The margin model predicts Hull by 4.8 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull to Win @1.38

Lost ✗

Edge

+5.8%

Line / Spread

Hull +4.8 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R22W
R23L
R24L
R25L
R26W

older → newer

13.2
Catalans Dragons
R22L
R23W
R24L
R25W
R26W
19.4

Avg Conceded

16.4

Hull

19.6

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

-3.2

Hull

-0.2

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

923

Hull

738

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

2.2

Hull

2.4

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Hull lead 3-2
Apr 2026HUL 24 - 20 CAT
Jun 2025HUL 34 - 0 CAT
Mar 2025HUL 24 - 4 CAT
Sep 2024HUL 4 - 24 CAT
Jul 2024HUL 16 - 24 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1493Overall1376
CAT
ELO difference: +117 in favour of Hull

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

914Forwards886
Best: 1152HUL +28Best: 1051
911Backs839
Best: 1070HUL +72Best: 947
1110Halves1000
Best: 1110HUL +110Best: 1000
660Hooker779
CAT +119

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
CAT
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
13.2pts
Avg Score
19.4pts
16.4pts
Avg Conceded
19.6pts
-3.2pts
Avg Margin
-0.2pts
923.4m
Run Metres
738.2m
2.2
Clean Breaks
2.4
270.0
Tackles
205.8
8.2
Errors
7.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Hull
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Dragons
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

78%

Hull predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: +4.8

0/4 match predictions correct