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Super League | Round 27

alphr.com.au

SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • THURSDAY 18 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

2820
WAR

Warrington Wolves

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 87%

AI Win Probability

87%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

87%

Warrington Wolves

13%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 87%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warrington Wolves. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull KR carry a 390-point ELO rating advantage (1703 vs 1313). Recent form favours Hull KR with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Warrington Wolves. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 9.8 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.02

Winner ✓

Edge

-11.5%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +9.8 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R22W
R23L
R24W
R25W
R26L

older → newer

11.6
Warrington Wolves
R22W
R23L
R24L
R25L
R26L
13.2

Avg Conceded

14.8

Hull KR

27.6

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

-3.2

Hull KR

-14.4

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1193

Hull KR

728

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

3.4

Hull KR

1.6

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 3-2
May 2025HKR 31 - 12 WAR
Feb 2024HKR 10 - 8 WAR
Feb 2024HKR 8 - 20 WAR
Jul 2024HKR 22 - 4 WAR
Mar 2024HKR 20 - 22 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1703Overall1313
WAR
ELO difference: +390 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

937Forwards810
Best: 1131HKR +126Best: 1036
821Backs743
Best: 965HKR +78Best: 839
723Halves600
Best: 723HKR +123Best: 600
970Hooker670
HKR +300

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
WAR
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
11.6pts
Avg Score
13.2pts
14.8pts
Avg Conceded
27.6pts
-3.2pts
Avg Margin
-14.4pts
1193.4m
Run Metres
728.0m
3.4
Clean Breaks
1.6
315.4
Tackles
246.2
9.2
Errors
7.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

87%

Hull KR predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: +9.8

3/4 match predictions correct