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Super League | Play-off Eliminators

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Fri 26 Sept10:00am
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Sat 27 Sept10:00am
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PROGRESS WITH UNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 26 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
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LEI

Leigh Leopards

2610
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 81%

AI Win Probability

81%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

81%

Wakefield Trinity

19%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 81%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wakefield Trinity. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. Leigh Leopards carry a 120-point ELO rating advantage (1685 vs 1566). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Wakefield Trinity. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 3.9 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.37

Winner ✓

Edge

+8.0%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +3.9 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R23W
R24W
R25W
R26W
R27W

older → newer

35.2
Wakefield Trinity
R23L
R24W
R25L
R26W
R27W
30.4

Avg Conceded

10.0

Leigh Leopards

20.0

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

25.2

Leigh Leopards

10.4

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

1317

Leigh Leopards

1175

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

7.0

Leigh Leopards

5.8

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 3-2
Apr 2026LEI 14 - 18 WAK
Jun 2025LEI 24 - 20 WAK
Apr 2025LEI 14 - 40 WAK
Feb 2023LEI 30 - 4 WAK
Sep 2023LEI 20 - 19 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1685Overall1566
WAK
ELO difference: +120 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

917Forwards1003
Best: 1196WAK +86Best: 1350
1065Backs1136
Best: 1244WAK +71Best: 1400
626Halves1155
Best: 626WAK +529Best: 1155
1187Hooker975
LEI +211

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
WAK
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
35.2pts
Avg Score
30.4pts
10.0pts
Avg Conceded
20.0pts
25.2pts
Avg Margin
10.4pts
1316.8m
Run Metres
1174.6m
7.0
Clean Breaks
5.8
265.0
Tackles
288.4
8.0
Errors
9.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

81%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +3.9

2/4 match predictions correct