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Super League | Play-off Eliminators

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Fri 26 Sept10:00am
LEILEI
WAKWAK
Sat 27 Sept10:00am
LEELEE
STHSTH
AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • SATURDAY 27 SEPT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

1416
STH

St Helens

❌ Upset — model favoured Leeds Rhinos at 70%

AI Win Probability

70%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

70%

St Helens

30%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Helens. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Leeds Rhinos carry a 46-point ELO rating advantage (1666 vs 1620). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Helens. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 4.8 points with a combined total of 36.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.49

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.5%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +4.8 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R23W
R24W
R25W
R26L
R27L

older → newer

20.4
St Helens
R23W
R24L
R25L
R26L
R27W
12.8

Avg Conceded

8.8

Leeds Rhinos

18.4

St Helens

Avg Margin

11.6

Leeds Rhinos

-5.6

St Helens

Run Metres

1236

Leeds Rhinos

1134

St Helens

Clean Breaks

4.0

Leeds Rhinos

1.8

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 4-1
Jul 2025LEE 0 - 6 STH
Jun 2025LEE 4 - 18 STH
May 2025LEE 17 - 4 STH
Feb 2024LEE 8 - 18 STH
Feb 2024LEE 10 - 40 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1666Overall1620
STH
ELO difference: +46 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

814Forwards872
Best: 1061STH +59Best: 1019
992Backs949
Best: 1253LEE +43Best: 1086
947Halves937
Best: 947LEE +10Best: 937
867Hooker771
LEE +96

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
STH
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
20.4pts
Avg Score
12.8pts
8.8pts
Avg Conceded
18.4pts
11.6pts
Avg Margin
-5.6pts
1235.8m
Run Metres
1134.0m
4.0
Clean Breaks
1.8
283.8
Tackles
273.6
9.0
Errors
10.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

70%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 36 · Line: +4.8

1/4 match predictions correct