# New Zealand vs Tonga Prediction & Tips | Rugby League World Cup Semi Finals 2026

**Kick-off:** Sat, 07 Nov, 08:05 pm AEDT · McDonald Jones Stadium

**Model pick:** pending until both 17s are named

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every game of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup, published once both 17s are named and never edited. No bookmaker prices are used in the model.

## Match preview

The game is at McDonald Jones Stadium, kicking off Saturday 7 November at 8:05 pm (Sydney time). Pool A (Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, Cook Islands) is a round robin; its top two reach the semi-finals. Once both 17s are named, the model rates every player from his club football and Tests on one scale, adds each nation's international rating and allows for home ground. It does not use betting markets.

On the model's power ratings New Zealand rank 2nd of the ten nations (+16.9 points on an average World Cup side) and Tonga 4th (+6.0). Across 20,000 simulations of the tournament, New Zealand have 100% to reach the semi-finals, 75% to reach the final and 13% to win the World Cup; Tonga have 100% to reach the semi-finals, 24% to reach the final and 1% to win the World Cup.

Our records since 2008 hold 7 full internationals between them: New Zealand won 5, Tonga 2. The most recent meeting, Pacific Championships, 2 Nov 2025, finished New Zealand 40-14 Tonga. Of the last 5, New Zealand won 3 and Tonga 2.

The Kiwis won their only World Cup in 2008, beating Australia 34-20 in the final in Brisbane. At the 2021 tournament they lost the semi-final 16-14 to the Kangaroos. New Zealand are coached by Stacey Jones. All 23 players in their squad play in the NRL. At the 2008, 2013, 2017 and 2021 World Cups they won 15 of 20 games.

Mate Ma'a Tonga beat New Zealand 28-22 in the 2017 pool stage and went on to the semi-final, where England edged them 20-18. Tonga are coached by Kristian Woolf. Their 23-man squad has 21 NRL, 1 Queensland Cup and 1 Super League players. At the 2008, 2013, 2017 and 2021 World Cups they won 11 of 15 games.

## By the numbers

- **Model pick:** Once both 17s are named
- **Kick-off:** Saturday 7 November at 8:05 pm (Sydney time), McDonald Jones Stadium
- **Pool:** Pool A
- **Power rank:** New Zealand 2nd · Tonga 4th
- **Title chance:** New Zealand 13% · Tonga 1%
- **Head to head since 2008:** New Zealand 5 · Tonga 2
- **Last meeting:** New Zealand 40-14 Tonga, Pacific Championships, 2 Nov 2025
- **Coaches:** Stacey Jones · Kristian Woolf

## Head to head

Full internationals in our records since 2008: New Zealand 5 wins, Tonga 2 (7 played).

- 2 Nov 2025 · Pacific Championships: New Zealand 40-14 Tonga
- 2 Nov 2024 · Pacific Championships: New Zealand 24-25 Tonga
- 25 Jun 2022 · Test: New Zealand 26-6 Tonga
- 22 Jun 2019 · Test: New Zealand 34-14 Tonga
- 11 Nov 2017 · World Cup Round 3: New Zealand 22-28 Tonga

[New Zealand (Kiwis) squad & fixtures](https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/new-zealand) · [Tonga (Mate Ma'a Tonga) squad & fixtures](https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/tonga)

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Last updated: 2026-11-03 03:35 UTC