# Australia vs Samoa Prediction & Tips | Rugby League World Cup Semi Finals 2026

**Kick-off:** Sun, 08 Nov, 08:05 pm AEDT · Allianz Stadium

**Model pick:** pending until both 17s are named

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every game of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup, published once both 17s are named and never edited. No bookmaker prices are used in the model.

## Match preview

The game is at Allianz Stadium, kicking off Sunday 8 November at 8:05 pm (Sydney time). Pool A (Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, Cook Islands) is a round robin; its top two reach the semi-finals. Once both 17s are named, the model rates every player from his club football and Tests on one scale, adds each nation's international rating and allows for home ground. It does not use betting markets.

On the model's power ratings Australia rank 1st of the ten nations (+25.0 points on an average World Cup side) and Samoa 5th (+1.8). Across 20,000 simulations of the tournament, Australia have 100% to reach the semi-finals, 97% to reach the final and 85% to win the World Cup; Samoa have 100% to reach the semi-finals, 3% to reach the final and under 1% to win the World Cup.

Our records since 2008 hold 4 full internationals between them: Australia won 4, Samoa 0. The most recent meeting, Pacific Championships, 14 Oct 2023, finished Australia 38-12 Samoa. Of the last 4, Australia won 4 and Samoa 0.

The Kangaroos are the defending champions and have won the Rugby League World Cup 12 times, including the last three: 2013, 2017 and the 2021 tournament played in 2022, when they beat Samoa 30-10 in the final at Old Trafford. Australia are coached by Kevin Walters. All 23 players in their squad play in the NRL. At the 2008, 2013, 2017 and 2021 World Cups they won 22 of 23 games.

Toa Samoa reached their first World Cup final at the 2021 tournament, beating England 27-26 in golden point in the semi-final before losing 30-10 to Australia. Samoa are coached by Ben Gardiner. Their 23-man squad has 22 NRL and 1 Super League players. At the 2008, 2013, 2017 and 2021 World Cups they won 8 of 17 games.

## By the numbers

- **Model pick:** Once both 17s are named
- **Kick-off:** Sunday 8 November at 8:05 pm (Sydney time), Allianz Stadium
- **Pool:** Pool A
- **Power rank:** Australia 1st · Samoa 5th
- **Title chance:** Australia 85% · Samoa under 1%
- **Head to head since 2008:** Australia 4 · Samoa 0
- **Last meeting:** Australia 38-12 Samoa, Pacific Championships, 14 Oct 2023
- **Coaches:** Kevin Walters · Ben Gardiner

## Head to head

Full internationals in our records since 2008: Australia 4 wins, Samoa 0 (4 played).

- 14 Oct 2023 · Pacific Championships: Australia 38-12 Samoa
- 19 Nov 2022 · RLWC2021 (played 2022) Final: Australia 30-10 Samoa
- 17 Nov 2017 · World Cup Quarter Finals: Australia 46-0 Samoa
- 9 Nov 2014 · Four Nations: Australia 44-18 Samoa

[Australia (Kangaroos) squad & fixtures](https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/australia) · [Samoa (Toa Samoa) squad & fixtures](https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/samoa)

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Last updated: 2026-11-03 03:41 UTC