# Australia vs New Zealand Prediction & Tips | Rugby League World Cup Final 2026

**Kick-off:** Sun, 15 Nov, 07:35 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium

**Model pick:** Australia (84%, by about 16)

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every game of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup, published once both 17s are named and never edited. No bookmaker prices are used in the model.

## Match preview

Alphr's model has Australia at 84% to win the World Cup final at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday 15 November, with the Kangaroos tipped by 16.4 points. The call leans hardest on the power ratings: Australia sit top of the ten nations at +25.3 above an average World Cup side, New Zealand are next best at +18.0. That's a solid gap to be carrying into a final.

Both sides have already locked away their spot in this match, which says plenty about how Pool A played out. Australia's tournament outlook has them at 100% to reach the semis and 84% to win the whole thing. New Zealand were also a certainty for the semis, but the model only gives them 15% to go all the way, which is roughly where this final sits too.

History leans Australia's way, though not as one-sided as the ratings gap suggests. Since 2008 the pair have met 31 times in full internationals: Australia have won 23, New Zealand 7, with one drawn. The most recent clash, a World Cup pool match on 15 October 2026, went Australia's way 24-22, which is not the sort of scoreline that screams 16-point blowout.

Context backs the Kangaroos too. They're defending champions, winners of the last three World Cups (2013, 2017, and the 2021 tournament played in 2022, where they beat Samoa 30-10 in the final), and twelve titles overall. New Zealand's only crown came in 2008, beating Australia 34-20 in Brisbane, and the last time these two met in a World Cup knockout it was a 16-14 semi-final loss for the Kiwis back in 2022.

Kevin Walters has Australia, Stacey Jones has New Zealand. Reece Walsh starts at fullback with Cameron Munster and Tom Dearden running the halves for the Kangaroos, while Kalyn Ponga and Jahrome Hughes do the same job for the Kiwis.

Line the margin up against that head-to-head record and the model's clearly weighting the ratings gap and recent form over the fact these two rarely play out as lopsided as the numbers imply. A 16-point win would be a comfortable result by World Cup final standards, but it's not close to the biggest margin these two have produced against each other this decade.

For New Zealand to cause the upset, they probably need something closer to their 2023 Pacific Championships final performance, when they beat Australia 30-0. Nothing in the ratings above says that's the likely version of this game, but the model deals in odds, not certainties, and 15% isn't zero.

## By the numbers

- **Model pick:** Australia (84%)
- **Predicted margin:** Australia by 16
- **Kick-off:** Sunday 15 November at 7:35 pm (Sydney time), Suncorp Stadium
- **Pool:** Pool A
- **Power rank:** Australia 1st · New Zealand 2nd
- **Title chance:** Australia 84% · New Zealand 15%
- **Head to head since 2008:** Australia 23 · New Zealand 7 · 1 drawn
- **Last meeting:** Australia 24-22 New Zealand, World Cup Round 1, 15 Oct 2026
- **Coaches:** Kevin Walters · Stacey Jones

## Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Australia to win @ $1.71 (edge +28.2%) — model probability 83.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Australia -2.5 @ $1.97 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Australia 13+ @ $3.45 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.97 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Australia by 16 · Predicted total: 55

## Team lists

**Australia:** 1 Reece Walsh, 2 Jack Bostock, 3 Kotoni Staggs, 4 Bradman Best, 5 Tom Trbojevic, 6 Cameron Munster, 7 Tom Dearden, 8 Patrick Carrigan, 9 Harry Grant, 10 Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, 11 Jacob Preston, 12 Liam Martin, 13 Isaah Yeo, 14 Ethan Strange, 15 Keaon Koloamatangi, 16 Cameron Murray, 17 Reuben Cotter, 18 Latrell Mitchell, 19 Sam Walker

**New Zealand:** 1 Kalyn Ponga, 2 Jamayne Isaako, 3 Dane Gagai, 4 Casey McLean, 5 Ronaldo Mulitalo, 6 Kodi Nikorima, 7 Jahrome Hughes, 8 James Fisher-Harris, 9 Jeremy Marshall-King, 10 Moses Leota, 11 Isaiah Papali'i, 12 Briton Nikora, 13 Joseph Tapine, 14 Te Maire Martin, 15 Naufahu Whyte, 16 Erin Clark, 17 Xavier Willison, 18 Keano Kini, 19 Phoenix Crossland

## Try scorer history — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games (club and Test football), career record against this nation and at Suncorp Stadium. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double against the 30 before; the model's chance is in the Alphr play column._

**Australia** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | Fullback | 11 in 21g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·3) | 1/1g | 11/23g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime try $2.18 AI 64% Great value +17.9%; 🎯 First try $9.50 AI 8% Market priced |
| 2 | Jack Bostock | Winger | 15 in 23g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·3·0·3·1) | 3/1g | 7/17g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime try $1.97 AI 75% Great value +24.0%; 🎯 First try $8.00 AI 11% Market priced |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | Centre | 12 in 27g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 17/28g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime try $3.25 AI 36% Great value +5.5% |
| 4 | Bradman Best | Centre | 6 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 22% |  |
| 5 | Tom Trbojevic | Winger | 16 in 18g | 10/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·3·3·1) | 1/3g | 4/2g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime try $1.91 AI 80% Great value +27.9%; 🎯 First try $8.00 AI 13% Fair odds |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | Five-Eighth | 4 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/9g | 8% |  |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | Halfback | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/8g | 26% |  |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | Prop | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/28g | 2% |  |
| 9 | Harry Grant | Hooker | 7 in 28g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/7g | 20% |  |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | Prop | 4 in 28g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 12% |  |
| 11 | Jacob Preston | 2nd Row | 10 in 24g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 4/6g | 44% |  |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2nd Row | 8 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 20% |  |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | Lock | 2 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/8g | 4% |  |
| 14 | Ethan Strange | Interchange | 8 in 26g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 38% |  |
| 15 | Keaon Koloamatangi | Interchange | 2 in 29g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 6% |  |
| 16 | Cameron Murray | Interchange | 6 in 26g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/5g | 21% |  |
| 17 | Reuben Cotter | Interchange | 3 in 29g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/10g | 8% |  |
| 18 | Latrell Mitchell | Interchange | 12 in 15g | 6/10g (4·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/5g | 28% |  |
| 19 | Sam Walker | Interchange | 12 in 28g | 6/10g (0·3·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/7g | 26% |  |

**New Zealand** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | Fullback | 8 in 24g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/1g | 0/5g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime try $3.00 AI 24% Market priced |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | Winger | 26 in 30g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·0·2·0·3·0·0) | 3/5g | 18/23g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime try $2.25 AI 40% Market priced; 🎯 First try $10.00 AI 7% Market priced |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | Centre | 8 in 29g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime try $3.70 AI 22% Market priced |
| 4 | Casey McLean | Centre | 19 in 25g | 12/10g (0·0·1·3·0·0·1·2·4·1) | 1/1g | 2/5g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime try $2.30 AI 53% Great value +9.1%; 🎯 First try $10.00 AI 11% Fair odds |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | Winger | 16 in 20g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 2/3g | 2/4g | 50% |  |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | Five-Eighth | 5 in 26g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/21g | 26% |  |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | Halfback | 5 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 28% |  |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | Prop | 4 in 27g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 14% |  |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | Hooker | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/17g | 16% |  |
| 10 | Moses Leota | Prop | 1 in 29g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/5g | 4% |  |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2nd Row | 3 in 29g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/5g | 18% |  |
| 12 | Briton Nikora | 2nd Row | 5 in 28g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 14% |  |
| 13 | Joseph Tapine | Lock | 1 in 28g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% |  |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | Interchange | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 16% |  |
| 15 | Naufahu Whyte | Interchange | 0 in 30g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 4% |  |
| 16 | Erin Clark | Interchange | 7 in 30g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 20% |  |
| 17 | Xavier Willison | Interchange | 9 in 28g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 8/27g | 28% |  |
| 18 | Keano Kini | Interchange | 6 in 28g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 18% |  |
| 19 | Phoenix Crossland | Interchange | 3 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 10% |  |

## Try scorer picks

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Tom Trbojevic @ $1.91 — model probability 80.2% (edge +27.9%)
- Jack Bostock @ $1.97 — model probability 74.7% (edge +24.0%)
- Reece Walsh @ $2.18 — model probability 63.8% (edge +17.9%)
- Casey McLean @ $2.30 — model probability 52.6% (edge +9.1%)
- Kotoni Staggs @ $3.25 — model probability 36.2% (edge +5.5%)
- Jamayne Isaako @ $2.25 — model probability 40.2% (edge -4.2%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Casey McLean @ $10.00 — model probability 10.8% (edge +0.8%)
- Tom Trbojevic @ $8.00 — model probability 12.7% (edge +0.2%)
- Jack Bostock @ $8.00 — model probability 10.8% (edge -1.7%)
- Jamayne Isaako @ $10.00 — model probability 7.5% (edge -2.5%)
- Reece Walsh @ $9.50 — model probability 8.0% (edge -2.6%)

## Head to head

Full internationals in our records since 2008: Australia 23 wins, New Zealand 7, 1 drawn (31 played).

- 15 Oct 2026 · World Cup Round 1: Australia 24-22 New Zealand
- 27 Oct 2024 · Pacific Championships: New Zealand 10-22 Australia
- 4 Nov 2023 · Pacific Championships Final: Australia 0-30 New Zealand
- 28 Oct 2023 · Pacific Championships: Australia 36-18 New Zealand
- 11 Nov 2022 · RLWC2021 (played 2022) Semi Finals: Australia 16-14 New Zealand

[Australia (Kangaroos) squad & fixtures](https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/australia) · [New Zealand (Kiwis) squad & fixtures](https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/new-zealand)

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Last updated: 2026-11-10 11:43 UTC (latest tip update)