# Rugby League World Cup 2026 Predictions & Tips

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every game of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup, published once both 17s are named and never edited. No bookmaker prices are used in the model.

15 October to 15 November 2026 in Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea. Pool A (Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, Cook Islands) is a round robin; Pools B and C (England, Samoa, Lebanon; France, Papua New Guinea, Tonga) share one table. The top two of each reach the semi-finals (7 November Newcastle, 8 November Sydney); the final is at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, on 15 November.
Alphr's model rates every player from his club football (NRL, NSW Cup, Queensland Cup, Super League) and Tests on one scale, adds each nation's international rating, and publishes one pick per game once both 17s are named. No bookmaker prices are used. Hub: https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup · How the model works: https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/how-our-model-works

### Round 1 (current round)
- Australia v New Zealand — Thu, 15 Oct, 8:05 pm, Allianz Stadium (Sydney time): pick pending until both 17s are named. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/match/2026-r1-australia-v-new-zealand
- Samoa v France — Fri, 16 Oct, 5:45 pm, CommBank Stadium (Sydney time): pick pending until both 17s are named. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/match/2026-r1-samoa-v-france
- Papua New Guinea v Lebanon — Sat, 17 Oct, 3:25 pm, Santos National Football Stadium (Sydney time): pick pending until both 17s are named. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/match/2026-r1-papua-new-guinea-v-lebanon
- England v Tonga — Sat, 17 Oct, 8:05 pm, HBF Park (Sydney time): pick pending until both 17s are named. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/match/2026-r1-england-v-tonga
- Fiji v Cook Islands — Sun, 18 Oct, 4:05 pm, McDonald Jones Stadium (Sydney time): pick pending until both 17s are named. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/match/2026-r1-fiji-v-cook-islands

### Who will win the 2026 Rugby League World Cup? (model, simulated)
- Australia (Kangaroos) (Pool A, power rank 1): 83% title, >99% semi-final. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/australia
- New Zealand (Kiwis) (Pool A, power rank 2): 12% title, 95% semi-final. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/new-zealand
- England (Pool B, power rank 3): 4% title, 81% semi-final. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/england
- Tonga (Mate Ma'a Tonga) (Pool C, power rank 4): <1% title, 39% semi-final. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/tonga
- Papua New Guinea (Kumuls) (Pool C, power rank 5): <1% title, 38% semi-final. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/papua-new-guinea
- Samoa (Toa Samoa) (Pool B, power rank 6): <1% title, 29% semi-final. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/samoa
- Fiji (Bati) (Pool A, power rank 7): <1% title, 5% semi-final. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/fiji
- Cook Islands (Aitu) (Pool A, power rank 9): 0% title, <1% semi-final. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/cook-islands
- Lebanon (Cedars) (Pool B, power rank 8): 0% title, 12% semi-final. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/lebanon
- France (Pool C, power rank 10): 0% title, <1% semi-final. https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams/france
Teams and power rankings: https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup/teams

## Pool tables

### Pool A
| # | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Cook Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Fiji | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

### Pool B & C
| # | Team | P | W | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Lebanon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Papua New Guinea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Samoa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Tonga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

## FAQ

**When is the 2026 Rugby League World Cup?** From Thursday 15 October to Sunday 15 November 2026, in Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea. Australia and New Zealand open the tournament at Allianz Stadium in Sydney on 15 October. The semi-finals are on 7 November in Newcastle and 8 November in Sydney, and the final is at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on 15 November.

**How does the 2026 World Cup format work?** Ten nations: Pool A plays a round robin, and Pools B and C share one table. The top two of each reach the semi-finals. Pool A is Australia, New Zealand, Fiji and the Cook Islands, who all play each other. England, Samoa and Lebanon (Pool B) play France, Papua New Guinea and Tonga (Pool C) across the pools, three games each, ranked on one combined table. The Pool A runner-up meets the Pool B and C winner, and the Pool A winner meets the Pool B and C runner-up.

**How does Alphr predict the Rugby League World Cup?** By rating every player in each squad from his club football, then adding each nation's international record. Every game a player has played in the NRL, the NSW Cup, the Queensland Cup, Super League or a Test is turned into one production score and put on a single NRL scale, so a Super League forward and an NRL forward can be compared. A nation's strength is the sum of its 17. An international rating built from every Test, Pacific Championships and World Cup result since 2008 adds what club form misses, and a venue term covers home advantage. No bookmaker prices are used anywhere in the model.

**How accurate is the World Cup model?** It picked 74% of winners when tested on 77 Tests between the top seven nations it had not been fitted on. Each season from 2015 to 2025 was predicted by a model fitted on the other seasons only. Across 77 games between Australia, New Zealand, England, Tonga, Samoa, Papua New Guinea and Fiji it picked 74% of winners, with an average error of 13.7 points on the margin.

**When are the World Cup tips published?** Once both teams have named their 17. Before team lists are named, the tournament outlook rates each nation's best 17 from its 23-man squad. A game's tip is published once both sides are named, and it is never changed afterwards.

**Who will win the 2026 Rugby League World Cup?** Australia, on Alphr's model: 83% to win the title, ahead of New Zealand (12%) and England (4%). The outlook simulates the rest of the tournament 20,000 times with the model's margins, the results so far and the pool and knockout format. Australia reach the semi-finals in >99% of simulations and the final in 95%. Every other nation is under 1% to win it. It updates after every result.

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/rugby-league-world-cup
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-10-10 23:38 UTC (latest tip update)