# NRL Semi Finals 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Semi Finals of the 2026 season — 2 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Semi Finals at a glance
- 2 matches · 3W–5L on 8 settled picks (38% strike rate)

## Semi Finals predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters v Sharks | Roosters @ $1.44 | Roosters 63% | WON |
| Warriors v Knights | Warriors @ $1.52 | Warriors 55% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Roosters v Sharks
Sat, 19 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Semi Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 62.9% / Sharks 37.1%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.44 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 62.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 6 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-sf-roosters-v-sharks

### Warriors v Knights
Sun, 20 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST · Eden Park · Semi Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 55.0% / Knights 45.0%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.52 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 55.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 2 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-sf-warriors-v-knights

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.8% | 138/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 50.7% | 108/213 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.3% | 49/210 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 55.9% | 119/213 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.2% | 535/1438 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.3% | 48/906 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/finals-week-1 (markdown: /nrl/round/finals-week-1.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/preliminary-finals (markdown: /nrl/round/preliminary-finals.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/semi-finals
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-20 08:03 UTC (latest tip update)