# NRL Preliminary Finals 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Preliminary Finals of the 2026 season — 2 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Preliminary Finals at a glance
- 2 matches · 8 picks pending · best value +4.2% edge

## Preliminary Finals predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins v Roosters | Dolphins @ $1.63 | Dolphins 62% | +4.2% |
| Panthers v Knights | Panthers @ $1.29 | Panthers 75% | +1.2% |

## Match-by-match

### Dolphins v Roosters
Fri, 25 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Preliminary Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 62.4% / Roosters 37.6%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.63 (edge +4.2%) — model probability 62.4%
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 5 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-pf-dolphins-v-roosters

### Panthers v Knights
Sun, 27 Sept, 04:00 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Preliminary Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 75.1% / Knights 24.9%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.29 (edge +1.2%) — model probability 75.1%
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 13 · Predicted total: 37
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $3.20 — model probability 46.9% (edge +15.7%)
- Casey McLean @ $2.45 — model probability 56.0% (edge +15.2%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $2.60 — model probability 47.2% (edge +8.7%)
- Dominic Young @ $2.60 — model probability 45.5% (edge +7.1%)
- Dylan Edwards @ $3.05 — model probability 36.6% (edge +3.8%)
- Thomas Jenkins @ $1.89 — model probability 54.0% (edge +1.1%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $13.00 — model probability 6.7% (edge -1.0%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $11.00 — model probability 6.7% (edge -2.4%)
- Dominic Young @ $11.00 — model probability 6.4% (edge -2.7%)
- Casey McLean @ $10.00 — model probability 6.4% (edge -3.6%)
- Dylan Edwards @ $13.00 — model probability 3.5% (edge -4.1%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-pf-panthers-v-knights

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.8% | 138/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 50.7% | 108/213 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.3% | 49/210 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 55.9% | 119/213 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.2% | 535/1438 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.3% | 48/906 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/semi-finals (markdown: /nrl/round/semi-finals.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-22 10:16 UTC (latest tip update)