# NRL Preliminary Finals 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Preliminary Finals of the 2026 season — 2 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Preliminary Finals at a glance
- 2 matches · 1W–7L on 8 settled picks (13% strike rate) · best value +4.2% edge

## Preliminary Finals predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins v Roosters | Dolphins @ $1.63 | Dolphins 62% | LOST |
| Panthers v Knights | Panthers @ $1.29 | Panthers 75% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Dolphins v Roosters
Fri, 25 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Preliminary Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 62.4% / Roosters 37.6%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.63 (edge +4.2%) — model probability 62.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 5 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-pf-dolphins-v-roosters

### Panthers v Knights
Sun, 27 Sept, 04:00 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Preliminary Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 75.1% / Knights 24.9%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.29 (edge +1.2%) — model probability 75.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 13 · Predicted total: 37
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-pf-panthers-v-knights

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.4% | 139/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 50% | 108/216 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.5% | 50/213 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56% | 121/216 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.1% | 542/1462 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.2% | 48/921 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/semi-finals (markdown: /nrl/round/semi-finals.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/grand-final (markdown: /nrl/round/grand-final.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-27 08:02 UTC (latest tip update)