# NRL Grand Final 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Grand Final of the 2026 season — 1 match, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Grand Final at a glance
- 1 match · 3W–1L on 4 settled picks (75% strike rate) · best value +3.5% edge

## Grand Final predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters v Knights | Roosters @ $1.45 | Roosters 69% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Roosters v Knights
Sun, 04 Oct, 07:30 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium · Grand Final
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 69.4% / Knights 30.6%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.45 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 69.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 8 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-gf-roosters-v-knights

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.4% | 139/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 50% | 108/216 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.5% | 50/213 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56% | 121/216 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.1% | 542/1462 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.2% | 48/921 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/preliminary-finals (markdown: /nrl/round/preliminary-finals.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/grand-final
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-10-04 10:33 UTC (latest tip update)