# NRL Finals Week 1 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Finals Week 1 of the 2026 season — 4 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Finals Week 1 at a glance
- 4 matches · 9W–7L on 16 settled picks (56% strike rate)

## Finals Week 1 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs v Knights | Rabbitohs @ $1.42 | Rabbitohs 64% | LOST |
| Warriors v Dolphins | Warriors @ $1.61 | Warriors 58% | LOST |
| Sharks v Cowboys | Sharks @ $1.45 | Sharks 55% | WON |
| Panthers v Roosters | Panthers @ $1.32 | Panthers 63% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Rabbitohs v Knights
Fri, 11 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 64.2% / Knights 35.8%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.42 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 64.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 10 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-fw1-rabbitohs-v-knights

### Warriors v Dolphins
Sat, 12 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST · Go Media Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 58.3% / Dolphins 41.7%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.61 (edge -0.8%) — model probability 58.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 4 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-fw1-warriors-v-dolphins

### Sharks v Cowboys
Sat, 12 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 54.6% / Cowboys 45.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.45 (edge -10.9%) — model probability 54.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 2 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-fw1-sharks-v-cowboys

### Panthers v Roosters
Sun, 13 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 63.4% / Roosters 36.6%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.32 (edge -8.7%) — model probability 63.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 7 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-fw1-panthers-v-roosters

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.8% | 138/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 50.7% | 108/213 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.3% | 49/210 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 55.9% | 119/213 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.2% | 535/1438 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.3% | 48/906 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/27 (markdown: /nrl/round/27.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/semi-finals (markdown: /nrl/round/semi-finals.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-13 08:04 UTC (latest tip update)